MLB Picks 5/28 – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB Picks 5/28 – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Boston Red Sox (27-27) visit the Baltimore Orioles (34-18) in the second of a three-game set tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Baltimore crushed Boston 11-3 in the opener yesterday on Memorial Day. Baltimore right fielder Kyle Stowers went 3-for-4 and drove in a career-high 4 RBIs in the win. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle also collected three hits for the Orioles. Baltimore has now won a season-high five in a row. Boston has dropped three of their last four contests. The American League East foes are matching up in a series for the first time this season. 

Tonight’s starters are Brayan Bello (5-2, 4.04 ERA) for Boston and Grayson Rodriguez (5-1, 3.20 ERA) for Baltimore.

GAME ODDS

Moneyline: Boston +136,   Baltimore -162

Run Line: Boston +1.5 (-144),   Baltimore -1.5 (+120)

Run Total:  over 8.5 (-110)   under 8.5 (-110)  

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

After making it to the 2021 ALCS and falling to the Houston Astros in six games, the Boston Red Sox have posted identical 78-84 records and finished last in the tough American League East division for back-to-back seasons. The biggest reason for the disappointing seasons was starting pitching. Boston ranked in the bottom half of baseball in ERA and WHIP in 2022 and 2023. Boston’s pitching has improved tremendously this season as their 3.22 ERA ranks third in MLB. The 4 guys remaining from last year’s starting rotation – Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta – have all been pretty consistent when healthy this season. This wasn’t the case for these 4 in the past. 

Starting pitchers Tanner Houck (4-5, 1.90 ERA, 69 K’s in 11 starts) and Kutter Crawford (2-3, 2.89, 61 K’s in 11 starts) are both off to good starts this season and have the lowest ERA’s on the team. Houck has not allowed a home run since April 12 which spans 8 consecutive starts. Tonight’s starter, 25-year-old, third-year hurler Brayan Bello (5-2, 4.04 ERA) leads the team in wins with 5. He spent a few weeks on the 15-day IL in April and early-May with a back (lat) injury that sort of limited his production over his last 3 starts. He did pick up a win and a quality start in his last outing at Tampa Bay – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K’s, 4 BB – on May 22. 

MLB Picks 5/28 – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

At the plate, Boston is led by power-hitting third baseman Rafael Devers. The 27-year-old, two-time All-Star is batting .273 with 10 homers and 24 RBI on the season. Devers has led Boston in homers and RBI in each of the last four seasons. Earlier in the month, he broke a franchise record when he homered in 6 straight games from May 15-21. 

Newly-acquired right fielder Tyler O’Neill (.236, 11 HR, 17 RBI) and a pair of star rookies in shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela (.209, 5 HR, 28 RBI) and right fielder Wilyer Abreu (.284, 5 HR, 21 RBI) are also having excellent seasons at the plate. Boston picked up O’Neill via trade from St. Louis in December and he now has a team-leading 11 homers. The 23-year-old Rafaela leads Boston in RBI with 21, while the 24-year-old Abreu’s .284 batting average leads the team. The outstanding play of both rookies, along with Devers and Boston’s relatively young pitching staff may bode well for the team’s future.

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

The 2023 Baltimore Orioles completed one of the biggest turnarounds in baseball history as they went from an MLB-worst 52-110 in 2021 to finishing 101-61 and winning the American League East. Baltimore finished with the second-best record in all of baseball in 2023. Baltimore’s magnificent season ended in disappointment as they were swept by the No. 5 seed Texas Rangers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, but that shouldn’t take away from the tremendous strides they’ve made.  

Baltimore has continued their excellent play this season as they enter tonight’s game with one of the best records in MLB at 34-18. They are currently 1.5 games behind the first-place New York Yankees in the American League East. Leading the way for Baltimore this season is the young, homegrown duo of shortstop Gunnar Henderson (.260, 17 HR, 37 RBI) and catcher Adley Rutschman (.300, 10 HR, 37 RBI). Baltimore selected both players with their first two picks in the 2019 MLB draft. The 26-year-old Rutschman was the No. 1 overall pick and the 22-year-old Henderson was chosen in the second-round pick (No.42) overall. Rutschman has 9 RBI over Baltimore’s last 5 games which have all been wins.

MLB Picks 5/28 – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Third baseman Jordan Westburg (.285, 8 HR, 32 RBI) right fielder Anthony Santander (.201, 9 HR, 29 RBI) and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (.280, 6 HR, 20 RBI) are also key pieces in Baltimore’s high-powered offense. These three players were also drafted and developed through Baltimore’s minor league system in the same manner as Henderson and Rutschman. Santander has led Baltimore in homers and RBI for the last 2 seasons. Mountcastle is on a 6-game hit streak and is batting .440 during that span.

Baltimore made a huge addition in the offseason when they added former Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes via trade from Milwaukee. The 29-year-old, three-time All-Star arrived in Baltimore with huge expectations after a terrific 6-year career with the Milwaukee Brewers where he won the 2021 Cy Young Award and amassed 200+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 seasons with the club. Burnes got off to an auspicious start as an Oriole after stricking out 11 batters over 6 innings in his debut on Opening Day against the Los Angeles Angels. On the season, Burnes is 4-2 and his 2.60 ERA and 66 strikeouts lead the team. He has exceeded expectations up to this point. 

Baltimore starting pitchers Cole Irvin (5-2, 2.84 ERA), Grayson Rodriguez (5-1, 3.20 ERA) and Kyle Bradish (1-0, 1.75 ERA) have all pitched very well this year, alongside Corbin Burnes. Rodriguez (shoulder) and Bradish (elbow) are now healthy after they both spent time on the 15-day-IL earlier in the year. The 24-year-old, second-year star Rodriguez takes the mound tonight for Baltimore looking for a team-leading 6th win. Rodriguez was also drafted and developed through Baltimore’s minor league system. Baltimore selected him No. 11 overall in the 2018 MLB draft. He had a great rookie season last year finishing 7-4 with a 4.35 ERA and a 129:42 KK:BB in 23 starts. 

THE PICK: ORIOLES (ML)

Baltimore has won 5 in a row and has one of their best pitchers taking the mound tonight in Grayson Rodriguez. Take the Orioles on the moneyline!

MLB Picks 5/28 – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles