NBA Playoff Picks 5/18 – Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA Playoff Picks 5/18 – Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Western Conference Semifinals continue tonight with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) visiting the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks (50-32) in Game Six on ABC. Dallas is up 3-2 after winning 104-92 at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. Dallas also won Game Five on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round to take control of that series. If Dallas wins tonight, they’ll advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three seasons. They also made the Western Conference finals as the No. 4 seed – after knocking off the top-seeded Phoenix Suns – in 2022. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 208.5.

Dallas took control of the series behind Luka Doncic’s 31-point-triple-double in their Game Five win on Wednesday night. Doncic finished with 31 points (12-22 FG, 5-11 3Pt, 2-3 FT), 11 assists, 10 rebounds and a block over 41 minutes in the 104-92 win. It was his second triple-double of the series and third triple-double of the entire postseason. Athletic forward Derrick Jones Jr. stepped up with 19 points (7-9 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 2-2 FT) one steal and one block across 28 minutes. Jones contribution was timely as P.J. Washington and Kyrie Irving struggled in Game Five.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City with 30 points (12-22 FG, 2-4 3Pt, 4-6 FT), eight assists, six rebounds, two steals and one block over 43 minutes in the Game Five loss. Gilgeous-Alexander has put up 30+ points in four straight games in the series. Star rookie Chet Holmgren added 19 points (6-9 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 5-6 FT), nine rebounds, four blocks and one steal over 40 minutes. Oklahoma City’s 92 points was their lowest scoring output of the year – regular season and postseason.

Oklahoma City evened the series at two after a spirited 100-96 comeback win at Dallas in Game Four on May 13. OKC trailed for most of the game until the 3:24 mark of the fourth quarter when Chet Holmgren hit a three-pointer that put them up for good at 89-86. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a playoff-high 34 points (14-27 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 6-6 FT) in the Game Four win.

GAME STORYLINES: OKLAHOMA CITY

In the 2020 offseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder made the decision to rebuild their roster with younger players and draft picks around their budding, second-year star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC finished with abysmal records of 22-50 and 24-58 over the next 2 seasons but were able to secure high draft picks while Gilgeous-Alexander elevated his game to superstar status.  

While Oklahoma City suffered through a lot of losses for two seasons – 2020-21 and 2021-22, they drafted very well. The Thunder selected Josh Giddy sixth overall in the 2021 NBA draft, and then nabbed Chet Holmgren (No. 2 overall) and Jalen Williams (No. 12 overall) in the first round of the 2022 NBA draft. All three players immediately established themselves as stars in the NBA which hastened the rebuild process as OKC increased their win total by 17 games this season. They went from the No. 10 seed last year to finishing first in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

The All-NBA efforts of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with the tremendous play of Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddy catapulted Oklahoma City to the top of the Western Conference. Oklahoma City’s 57 regular season wins is their most since the 2013-14 season when they finished 59-23 and advanced to the Western Conference Finals. Gilgeous-Alexander ended the regular season averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2 steals on 53.5 percent shooting from the floor across 75 games. He finished second to Denver’s Nikola Jokic in the NBA Most Valuable Player Award voting. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has also been excellent in the postseason averaging 29.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals on 48.7 percent shooting from the floor through 9 games. He’s scored 30 or more points in 4 straight games and 5 of OKC’s 9 playoff games. Gilgeous-Alexander led OKC to a historic first-round series sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans. OKC became the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history – with an average age of 23.9 years – to sweep a series. It was also the franchise’s first series sweep since 2012 when the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook-James Harden led Thunder swept the defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs. 

GAME STORYLINES: DALLAS

During the 2018 NBA draft, the Dallas Mavericks made what turned out to be a franchise-altering decision when they selected Trae Young with the No. 5 pick and then traded him to Atlanta for the No. 3 pick Luka Doncic. While Trae Young has become an elite player in the NBA, Doncic has been better. In his 6 NBA seasons, Doncic won Rookie of the Year, made 5 All-Star teams and was named All-NBA first team 4 times. 

The 25-year-old superstar Doncic may have had his best season of his career this year as he finished the regular season averaging a league-leading and career-high 33.9 points per game, along with 9.8 assists, 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 4.1 threes on 48.7 percent shooting from the floor. He finished third in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Despite being hobbled by leg injuries, Doncic is still averaging 27.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, 9 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.7 threes in 11 postseason games.

In February 2023, Dallas added talented and enigmatic free-agent-to-be point guard Kyrie Irving to pair with Luka Doncic in hopes that the dynamic duo could lead Dallas to a deep playoff run. The move appeared to be a total disaster as Dallas finished the 2022-23 season with a 38-44 record and failed to make the playoffs. After the season, Kyrie surprised many by agreeing to a 3-year, $126 contract to stay with Dallas. Everything has gone smoothly for Dallas ever since as Luka and Kyrie developed the on-court chemistry that was expected last season. Kyrie averaged 25.6 ppg in the regular season and played in 58 games, which was his highest total for games played in a full season since the 2018-19 season. 

Dallas also made two significant additions at this year’s February trade deadline when they acquired athletic center Daniel Gafford from Washington and combo forward P.J. Washington from Charlotte. Both players provided a tremendous boost with their scoring, outside shooting, rebounding and shot-blocking. The production of Gafford and Washington have fit in perfectly with the enormous skillsets of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Washington has been Dallas’ second-best player in this series against Oklahoma City as he’s averaging 19.4 points, 9 rebounds and 4.2 threes on 48.7 percent shooting from the floor and 47.7 percent shooting from long distance through 5 games.

THE PICK: MAVS (-3.5)

Oklahoma City has had a great playoff run and they’ll probably be making runs to the NBA Finals very soon but their lack of playoff experience is just too much for them to overcome against a playoff-tested vet like Luka Doncic. Lay the Points and take the Mavs!