NBA Playoff Picks 5/7 – Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

NBA Playoff Picks 5/7 – Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals starts tonight with the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34) visiting the top-seeded Boston Celtics (64-18) at TD Garden on TNT. Boston won two of the three regular season meetings, with each team winning at home. Cleveland won the last matchup 105-104 on Mar. 5, they overcame a 22-point fourth quarter deficit to pull out the win. The win snapped Boston’s 11-game winning streak. Boston is an 11-point favorite and the total is 209.5. Boston is also an overwhelming (-1800) favorite to win the series. 

This will be the ninth postseason meeting between Boston and Cleveland, the series is tied at four. Cleveland has won the previous three playoff series, with the most recent being in the 2018 Eastern Conference finals when a LeBron James-led Cavs team eliminated the Celtics in seven games. 

Two notable playoff matchups between the teams include the 2010 Eastern Conference semis when the fourth-seeded Celtics upset the top-seeded Cavs in six games. That Game 6 loss ended up being LeBron James last game as a Cavalier in his first stint with the franchise. In the 1992 East semis, Cleveland knocked off visiting Boston in a grueling seven-game series that wound up being Hall of Famer Larry Bird’s last game in the NBA.

Cleveland advanced to the East semis after defeating rising Orlando 106-94 in Game 7 of the first round on Sunday afternoon. Cleveland trailed by as much as 18 points (49-31) in the second quarter. They became the first team in NBA history to trail by 10+ points in a Game 7 then win by 10+ points. Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland with 39 points (11-27 FG, 2-8 3Pt, 15-17 FT), 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 block and 1 steal across 45 minutes. Mitchell scored 50 – of Cleveland’s 96 points – in the Game 6 loss at Orlando. 

Cleveland picked up their first playoff series win since 2018 and their first without LeBron James since 1993, when a Brad Daugherty and Mark Price-led Cavs team knocked off the New Jersey Nets 99-89 in a win-or-go-home first round Game 5 contest.

Boston has not played since May 1 after dispatching of the Miami Heat in five games. Boston won their four games against Miami by an average of 22 points per game. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White each averaged over 20 ppg in the 5 games against Miami. 

GAME STORYLINES: CLEVELAND

When LeBron James departed from the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time following the 2017-18 season, it was assumed that Cleveland would suffer through a long stretch of terrible seasons as it did when LeBron bolted after the 2009-10 season. After three dismal seasons and a surprising 44-38 finish in 2021-22, Cleveland had the assets to make a bold move to improve the roster. The Cavs traded for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell in September 2022.

Adding Donovan Mitchell gave Cleveland the superstar they lacked since LeBron left and he has exceeded expectations in his 2 seasons with the team. Mitchell averaged a career-high 28.3 ppg in his first year with Cleveland and led them to a 51-31 record, which was their mist wins since the 2016-17 season. 

Donovan Mitchell was excellent again this season as he finished with averages of 26.6 points, 6.1 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 3.3 threes and 1.8 steals on 46.2 percent shooting from the floor. His rebounds and assists were career-highs. Mitchell missed 27 games due to a left knee bone bruise and a nasal fracture suffered in March. The knee injury seemed to hinder Mitchell at various times in the Orlando series but he still ended up carrying Cleveland to a Game 7 victory. Mitchell averaged 28.7 ppg in the first round against Orlando.

Cavs center Jarrett Allen was also terrific against Orlando as he averaged 17 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1 steal on 67.6 percent shooting from the floor against Orlando. Unfortunately, he suffered a rib injury early in the series which caused him to miss the last 3 games. He’s considered questionable for tonight’s game. Allen’s availability for the Boston series will be huge as the rest of the Cavs – other than Mitchell – struggled for the most part against Orlando. 

 

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

After making an unexpected run to the 2022 NBA Finals with a relatively young squad and coming up just short against the Golden State Warriors, the Boston Celtics spent the past 2 seasons establishing themselves as one of the elite teams in the NBA. They finished 57-25 last season and advanced to the Eastern Conference finals where they lost to Miami in 7 games. Prior to this season, Boston made two significant additions in former All-Stars Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

The additions of Porzingis and Holiday resulted in Boston producing a historic season this year where they finished 64-18 and set several records for margin of victory and point differential. Boston’s 64 wins is their most since the 2007-08 season when they finished 66-16 and won the NBA title. The Celtics set an NBA record with seventeen 25-point wins and their 11.34 margin of victory during the regular season ranks fifth all time. 

The All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum (26.9 pts, 8.1 rebs, 4.9 asts, 1 stl, 3.3 threes 47.1% from 2) and Jaylen Brown (23 pts, 5.5 rebs, 3.6 asts, 1.2 stls, 2.1 threes, 49.9% from 2) were fantastic again this season. They’ve been teammates since the 2017-18 season and now have Boston positioned as the favorite to win the NBA title. Porzingis averaged 20.2 ppg and 7.2 rpg across 57 games in his first season with Boston. Unfortunately, Porzingis suffered a right calf strain in Game 4 against Miami and is expected to miss the entire series against Cleveland.

After averaging career-highs of 15.2 ppg, 5.2 apg, 4.2 rpg, 1.2 blks, 1 stl, and 2.7 threes in 73 regular season games, Boston guard Derrick White has been superb in the postseason. He’s averaging 22.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1 block and 4.2 threes on 57.7 percent shooting from the floor and 47.7 percent from beyond the arc. He scored a career-high 38 points in Boston’s 102-88 Game 4 win at Miami on Apr. 29. If White can maintain this offensive production, it will soften the blow of losing Porzingis. 

THE PICK: CELTICS (-11)

All four of Boston’s wins in the 2024 postseason have been blowouts. I don’t see why anything would change tonight against Cleveland. Lay the double-digits and take the Celtics!