NBA Playoff Picks – Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

NBA Playoff Picks – Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs continues tonight with the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics (64-18) looking to finish off the visiting No. 8 seed Miami Heat (46-36) at TD Garden on TNT. Boston took a commanding 3-1 series lead after a 102-88 win in Miami on Monday night. After splitting the first two games of the series, Boston won both games in Miami by a combined margin of 34 points. If Boston wins tonight, they’ll face the Cleveland-Orlando winner in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston is a 13.5-point favorite and the total is 200.

Derrick White led Boston with a career-high 38 points (15-26 FG, 8-15 3Pt) along with four rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks across 41 minutes in the Game 4 win. Jayson Tatum added 20 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists in 37 minutes. Boston has won 6 straight and 14 of their last 17 games in Miami. Bam Adebayo led Miami with 25 points, 17 rebounds and 5 assists across 42 minutes in a losing effort. Tyler Herro added 19 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists for Miami across 44 minutes.

Game Four got a little chippy with 5:04 left in the game after Miami center Bam Adebayo stepped into Jayson Tatum’s landing area on a dead-ball play. This caused Tatum to roll his left ankle. After a slight skirmish between the teams, Adebayo was assessed with a flagrant-1. Tatum remained in the game after the incident. 

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Miami Heat superstar Jimmy Butler has almost single-handedly led the Miami Heat to long and somewhat improbable playoff runs over the past 4 seasons. Butler led Miami to the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023, and the Conference Finals in 2022. Butler increased his production in all three postseason runs. Last year, he averaged a whopping 37.6 ppg as 8th seeded Miami upset the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs. Butler’s playoff heroics earned him the nickname of “Playoff Jimmy.”

Unfortunately, we will probably not see Playoff Jimmy in the 2024 postseason after he suffered a sprained MCL in his right knee during the first quarter of Miami’s Play-In game loss at Philadelphia on Apr. 17. Butler was actually able to finish that game on a bad knee but has not played since. He will miss tonight’s game and the rest of the series if Miami is able to win Game 5. Miami was still able to trounce the Chicago Bulls 112-91 in the win-or-go home Play-In game on Apr. 19 and win at Boston 111-101 in Game 2 without Butler. Miami went 13-9 without Butler during the regular season.

Miami’s injury woes extend beyond Butler as regular season trade acquisition Terry Rozier (neck) and star rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip) will miss tonight’s game. Rozier has missed the entire postseason like Butler, and has not played since Apr. 7 at Indiana. Miami traded for the 30-year-old Rozier on Jan. 23, he averaged 16.4 ppg in 31 games with the team and would have provided a significant scoring boost for them in the postseason. The 23-year-old rookie Jaquez (11.9 pts, 3.8 rebs, 1 stl, 48.9% from 2 in 75 games) was one of the top rookies in the NBA this season after Miami selected him at No. 18 in the first round of the NBA draft. He was Miami’s third leading scorer (12.8 ppg) in this series against Boston.

Miami has been relying heavily on the duo of All-Star big man Bam Adebayo and guard Tyler Herro to carry them against Boston with all the injuries. Adebayo is averaging 22.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 53.5 percent shooting from the floor in this series. He’s scored 20 or more points in all four games against Boston. Herro is averaging 17.3 points, 6 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 3.5 threes while shooting 40 percent from long distance. Herro had 14 assists in Miami’s Game 2 upset win at Boston. 

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON  

For the previous two seasons, the Boston Celtics had come up just short of winning an NBA title. They made an unexpected run to the NBA Finals in 2022 and held a 2-1 series lead before losing 3 straight to the Golden State Warriors. Last season, Boston finished 57-25 and made it to the Eastern Conference finals and were knocked off by the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in a hard-fought 7 game series. Miami won Game 7 at Boston 103-84. Boston management made the decision to upgrade an already talented roster after that loss to Miami.

In the offseason, Boston made two significant additions to their roster. They added talented 7-foot-2 center Kristaps Porzingis in June and defensive standout Jrue Holiday in October. Both players added a significant boost in scoring, shooting and defense that catapulted Boston to the best record in the NBA at 64-18. Boston’s 64 wins is their most since the 2007-08 season when they went 66-16 and won the NBA title. Boston also had a historic season as they set NBA records with seventeen 25-point wins and ten 30-point wins. They also outscored teams by an average margin of 11.34 points per game which ranks fifth in NBA history. 

Boston’s All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were terrific again this season. The 26-year-old, 5-time All-Star Tatum finished the regular season with averages of 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1 steal and 3.1 threes on 47.1 percent shooting from the floor in 74 games. Brown averaged 23 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.1 threes on 49.9 percent shooting from the floor in 70 games. Both players are averaging about 23 ppg against Miami in this series. Tatum had a triple-double – 23 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists – in Boston’s 114-94 Game 1 win. It was his first triple-double of the season. 

Despite having a secondary role on the team, especially with the additions of Holiday and Porzingis, guard Derrick White averaged career-highs of 15.2 points, 5.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 1 steal and 2.7 threes per game in 73 starts. White has been even better in this series against Miami averaging 21.3 points, 3.5 assists, 1.3 blocks and 4 threes on 56.9 percent shooting from the floor and 47.1 percent shooting from long distance. He dropped a career-high 38 points in Boston’s Game 4 win.  

Boston suffered a significant loss in their Game 4 win when Kristaps Porzingis left the game with a right calf strain. He won’t play in tonight’s contest and is expected to miss a minimum of several games. It’s possible that Porzingis could be out for an extended period of time beyond this series against Miami. The 28-year-old Porzingis missed 25 games during the regular season and has been injury-prone for portions of his 8-year NBA career.

THE PICK: CELTICS (-13.5)

Boston has dominated the last 2 games, I don’t see why anything changes tonight, especially with Heat rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. joining the list of injured Heat players. Lay the Big Number and take the Celtics!