NBA Playoff Picks 4/29 – Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

NBA Playoff Picks 4/29 – Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs continues tonight with the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics (64-18) visiting the eighth-seeded Miami Heat (46-36) in Game Four on TNT. Boston will look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead tonight. The franchises have a heated rivalry as they’ve met in the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the past four seasons and each of the last two seasons. The previous two Conference Finals matchups have gone the full seven games with the road team winning Game 7. Miami won two of the three Conference Finals matchups against Boston in 2020 and 2023. Boston is a 10.5-point favorite and the total is 203.5.

Boston took a 2-1 series lead after a dominant 104-84 win at Miami in Game 3 on Saturday afternoon. Boston held Miami to just 12 first quarter points and never trailed in the game. Boston stretched the lead to 26 points late in the second quarter. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown each scored 22 points for Boston in the win. Tatum also added 11 rebounds and 6 assists across 39 minutes. Bam Adebayo led Miami with 20 points and 9 rebounds in 39 minutes. 

The Celtics had revenge on their mind in Game 3 at Miami after a shocking 111-101 Game 2 loss on Apr. 24. Miami hit a franchise playoff-record 23 three-pointers in the win. Tyler Herro led Miami with 24 points and 14 assists. His 14 assists were a season-high for any Miami player this year and are the second-most by a Miami player in a playoff game in team history. Boston’s Game 4 win raised their record to 15-4 after a loss this season with the average margin of victory being 12.2 points. Boston has now won six of their last seven playoffs games in Miami.

GAME STORYLINES: BOSTON

For three seasons now, the Boston Celtics have established themselves as one of the elite teams in the NBA. In 2021-22, a relatively young Boston squad made it the NBA Finals where they lost to Golden State in 6 games. Boston made the finals for the first time since 2010. The 2022-23 season saw Boston earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 57-25 record. They fell just short of making the NBA Finals after losing to Miami in a hard-fought seven game series. Boston finished this season with the NBA’s best record at 64-18. The 64 wins is their most wins since the 2007-08 season when they went 66-16 and won the NBA title. 

The outstanding play of Boston’s All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is the main reason for Boston’s three-year run of excellence. The 26-year-old, 5-time All-Star Tatum finished the regular season with averages of 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1 steal and 3.1 threes on 47.1 percent shooting from the floor in 74 games. Brown averaged 23 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.1 threes on 49.9 percent shooting from the floor in 70 games. Both players are averaging around 24 ppg in this series against Miami. Tatum had a triple-double – 23 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists – in Boston’s 114-94 Game 1 win. It was his first triple-double of the season.

Even with the tremendous success of the previous two seasons, Boston still made two significant additions in the offseason when they acquired 7-foot-3 center Kristaps Porzingis in June and former All-Star/defensive dynamo Jrue Holiday in October. Both players provided significant scoring and shooting boosts that complimented Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Boston no longer had to rely on Tatum and Brown to have huge scoring games to win every night. Porzingis averaged 20.1 pts, 7.2 rebs, 1.9 blks on 51.6% shooting from 2 in 57 games this season. Porzingis’s ppg average allowed Boston to pull of the rare feat of having three players on one team averaging over 20 ppg.

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

In a similar fashion to the Boston Celtics, the Miami Heat also established themselves as one of the elite franchises in the NBA in recent years, especially in the postseason. Over the past 4 seasons, Miami has made two trips (2020 and 2023) to the NBA Finals and one trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 as the No. 1 seed. They lost a tough 7-game series to the Boston Celtics in the 2022 Conference Finals. Last season, Miami became the second team in NBA history to make the NBA finals as an eight seed. 

The biggest reason for Miami’s postseason success was the stellar play of Jimmy Butler. Butler’s herculean efforts ignited Miami’s deep playoff runs. Butler averaged a whopping 37.6 ppg on nearly 60% shooting from the floor as the eighth-seeded Miami Heat upset the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs last season. Butler averaged 26.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.8 steals on 46.8 percent shooting over 22 games in the 2023 playoffs. He averaged 27.4 ppg and 7.4 rpg across 17 games in the 2022 postseason. Butler’s spectacular postseason numbers earned him the nickname of “Playoff Jimmy.”

Jimmy Butler seemed poised to go on another epic postseason run as Miami was thrust into a similar situation as last season where they entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. Unfortunately, Butler suffered a sprained MCL in the first quarter of Miami’s Play-In Tournament loss at Philadelphia on Apr. 17. He’s expected to miss this entire series against Boston and could be out for an extended period of time if Miami gets past Boston. Miami was able to hammer the Bulls 112-91 without Butler in a win-or-go home Play-In game on Apr. 19, they also won Game 2 at Boston without him. Miami has actually been pretty formidable without Butler this year as they finished 13-9 in the regular season without him.

Guard Tyler Herro (20.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 3.1 threes) and power forward/center Bam Adebayo (19.3 pts, 10.4 rebs, 3.9 asts, 1.1 stls, 52.1% from 2) will be counted on heavily to carry the team without Butler. The 24-year-old Herro’s 20.8 ppg tied Jimmy Butler for the team lead in scoring during the regular season. The oft-injured Herro missed 40 games this year due to multiple foot injuries. He also missed virtually the entire 2023 postseason after breaking his hand in Game 1 of Miami’s first round series against Milwaukee. Adebayo has been Miami’s most consistent and reliable player over the past 2 seasons as Butler and Herro have missed a bevy of games with injuries. Adebayo’s 21.7 ppg leads Miami in this series against Boston. 

THE PICK: BOSTON (-10.5)

I understand that ‘Heat Culture’ is a real thing and you should never underestimate any Miami team but they are just too depleted – without Butler and Rozier – to have any shot against a juggernaut like Boston. I think Miami got lucky in Game 2 where they hit 23 3’s and will have a hard time winning another game in this series. Boston will pick up another easy win tonight. Lay the Points and take the Celtics!