NBA Playoff Picks 4/27 – LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

NBA Playoff Picks 4/27 – LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The first round of the Western Conference playoffs continues tonight with the second-seeded and defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets (57-35) looking to close out the seventh seeded Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) at Crypto.com Arena on ABC. Denver is on the verge of sweeping the Lakers in the playoffs for a second straight year. They’ve now won 11 straight games against the Lakers dating back December 2022. Denver is a 3-point favorite and the total is 218. 

Denver took full control of the series after picking up a 112-105 win in Game 3 at Los Angeles on Thursday night. After trailing by 10 points in the first quarter and 4 points (53-49) at halftime, Denver put the Lakers away in the third quarter. Denver outscored Los Angeles 34-22 in that decisive third quarter and cruised to victory. They led by as many as 15 points in the fourth quarter.  

Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 33 points (14-23 FG, 5-7 FT) and 15 rebounds. LeBron James finished with 26 points (12-20 FG, 1-6 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block across 42 minutes. Aaron Gordon led Denver with a playoff career-high 29 points (12-18 FG, 5-6 FT) and 15 rebounds. Nikola Jokic added 24 points (9-13 FG, 6-7 FT), 15 rebounds, 9 assists and 1 steal. The Lakers have held double digit leads in all three games in the series, yet trail 3-0. 

GAME STORYLINES: DENVER

For about 4 decades, the Denver Nuggets franchise had been tormented by great Los Angeles Laker teams in the regular season and postseason. Whether it was Magic Johnson in the 1980’s, Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant in the late 90’s through the 2010’s or LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the 2020 Orlando bubble, Denver rarely got the better of the Lakers. All of this changed last season when the Denver Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals and went on to win the franchise’s first NBA championship.

Not only did Denver dominate the Lakers in the Conference finals last year, they dominated the entire Western Conference by going 16-4 in the 2023 postseason and winning 10 of their last 11 postseason games. Superstar Nikola Jokic delivered Denver its first NBA crown with a historic performance in the NBA Finals. The two-time MVP averaged 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.4 blocks on 58.3 percent shooting from the floor and 42.1 percent shooting from long distance as Denver beat Miami in 5 games. 

Nikola Jokic put together another MVP-caliber effort this season. He averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 9 assists, 1.4 steals on 58.2 percent shooting from the floor in 79 games. If Jokic wins the NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award again this year, he’d become the 9th player in NBA history to win it at least three times. Jokic is overpowering the Lakers again in these playoffs, he’s averaging 27.7 points, 15.7 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.7 steals on 63.5 percent shooting from the floor through three games.

Shooting guard Jamal Murray is Jokic’s co-star for Denver, they may be the best 1-2 combo in the NBA. After tearing his ACL in April 2021, Murray missed the 2021 and 2022 postseasons, in addition to the entire 2021-22 season. Denver made quick postseason exits – a second round sweep to Phoenix in 2021 and a 4-1 first round defeat to Golden State in 2022 – without Murray. His return to full health last season was pivotal to Denver winning the title last year. Murray averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds on 47.3 percent shooting from the floor in the 2023 postseason. Murray is averaging 21.3 points, 8 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks against the Lakers in this series. He also hit a buzzer-beating fadeaway to stun the Lakers 101-99 in Game 2. 

GAME STORYLINES: LOS ANGELES LAKERS

In June 2019, the Los Angeles Lakers acquired superstar Anthony Davis to pair with LeBron James in hopes of bringing another title to the Lakers. The move paid off immediate dividends as the Lakers finished 52-19 in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season and went on to breeze through the Orlando “bubble” playoffs en route to capturing the 2020 NBA title. The Lakers have not come close to winning another title since 2020 due to multiple injuries for Anthony Davis and LeBron James, along with year-to-year roster upheaval which seemed to disrupt the team’s cohesion.

The past three seasons after the 2020 championship have ended with a first-round exit in 2021, missing the playoffs entirely in 2022 and a surprising run to the Western Conference finals last season after a late season surge propelled them to the No. 7 seed. The Lakers were unable to carry the momentum of last season’s postseason run into the 2023-24 campaign as they spent most of this season hovering around .500, even with LeBron James and Anthony Davis each playing in 70+ games. The Lakers needed another late season rally to finish as the No. 7 seed again this year. Unfortunately for the Lakers, the defending champion Denver Nuggets dropped to the No. 2 seed this season – as opposed to an injury-depleted, inexperienced and undersized Memphis Grizzlies squad who finished with the No. 2 seed last year – so upsetting the No. 2 seed was going to be a lot harder this time around.  

Through all the turbulence of the season, the All-Star duo of LeBron James (25.7 pts, 8.3 asts, 7.3 rebs, 1.3 stls, 2.1 threes, 54% from 2, 41% from 3 in 71 gms) and Anthony Davis (24.7 pts, 12.6 rebs, 2.3 blks, 1.2 stls 55.6% from 2 in 76 gms) continue to lead the Lakers. Both players have been surprisingly durable this season as LeBron’s 71 games and Davis’s 76 games are the most they’ve played since the 2017-18 season. 

Despite being on the verge of getting swept, Anthony Davis and LeBron James have put up excellent numbers in this series against Denver. Davis is averaging 32.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks on 61.5 percent shooting from the floor against Denver. James is averaging 26.3 points, 9.7 assists, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1.3 blocks, 2.3 threes on 56.4 percent shooting from the floor and 41.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The supporting cast outside of Davis and LeBron has been inconsistent and/or nonexistent for the most part against Denver. Guard D’Angelo Russell finished with zero points across 24 minutes in the Game 3 loss against Denver. 

If the Lakers season ends tonight, it will be interesting to see what moves they’ll make in the offseason. Will they bring in a new crop of players to surround LeBron James and Anthony Davis? Do they decide to bring this group back and hope the lessons learned from getting swept by Denver again results in improvement next year? If the Lakers do jettison players like D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Austin Reeves and bring in new guys to surround the Big Two, will it lead to more wins? Or do the same chemistry issues and inconsistency that we’ve seen from the current group remain with a different cast of characters?

THE PICK: NUGGETS (-3)

The Lakers appeared to have quit as soon as Denver took the lead in the 3rd quarter of Game 3 and went on to beat them for the 11th straight time. I think Denver puts the Lakers out of their misery and ends their season tonight. Lay the Points and take the Nuggets!