NBA Picks 4/19 – Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

NBA Picks 4/19 – Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The NBA’s Play-In Tournament concludes tonight with a do-or-die game as the ninth-seeded Chicago Bulls (39-43 in the regular season) visit the eighth-seeded Miami Heat (46-36 in the regular season) at Kaseya Center on ESPN. The winner will secure the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and face the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The loser goes home. The teams split four regular season matchups that were all played prior to Dec. 16. Miami is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 205. 

Miami and Chicago also faced each other in the Play-In round a little over a year ago on April 14, 2023. Miami won that game 102-91 and eliminated Chicago from the postseason. The Heat ended the game on a 15-1 run. Miami would go on to make it all the way to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed. 

Miami lost their opening Play-In round game 105-104 at Philadelphia on Wednesday night after blowing a 12-point halftime lead. Tyler Herro led Miami with 27 points (9-27 FG, 4-14 3Pt, 3-3 FT) in the loss. Miami suffered more than just a loss in Philadelphia as their leader Jimmy Butler went down with a knee injury late in the first quarter of the game. Butler was able to finish the game despite a limp. However, he was diagnosed with a sprained MCL yesterday and will miss several weeks. He’ll likely miss the entire series against Boston if Miami is able to get past Chicago tonight.

Chicago kept their season alive by pounding the tenth-seeded Atlanta Hawks 131-116 on Wednesday night. Bulls guard Coby White scored a career-high 42 points (15-21 FG, 3-7 3Pt, 9-10 FT) in the victory. Nikola Vucevic added 24 points and 12 rebounds. DeMar DeRozan finished with 22 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 1 block and 1 steal.

GAME STORYLINES: CHICAGO

In the summer of 2021, the Chicago Bulls signed talented and versatile point guard Lonzo Ball to a four-year, $80 million contract. The hope was the then-23-year-old Ball would quarterback a talented Bulls roster back to prominence. Unfortunately, Ball played in just 35 games in 2021-22 and has not played in an NBA game since due to a myriad of knee injuries. Lonzo Ball’s last game in the NBA was on Jan. 14, 2022. The Bulls were 27-13 at the time Ball went down and have been below .500 in the ensuing two and a half years. Ball’s injury has left somewhat of a dark cloud over the franchise but the Bulls organization is optimistic he can return next season. 

The Bulls still have a pretty formidable roster without Lonzo Ball when you look at stars like DeMar Derozan (24 pts, 5.3 asts, 4.3 rebs, 1.1 stls, 48% from 2), Nikola Vucevic (18 pts, 10.5 rebs, 48.4% from 2) and Zach LaVine (19.5 pts, 5.2 rebs, 2.4 threes per game). All three players have been outstanding in their time with the Bulls. DeRozan and LaVine have each made the All-Star game twice as members of the Bulls. LaVine was limited to just 25 games this season due to a foot injury. 

The absence of LaVine for most of the season has led to the emergence of Coby White. The explosive 24-year-old shooting guard became a reliable scoring option this year after being a complimentary scorer as a reserve over his first four seasons. White averaged career-highs of 19.1 points, 5.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 threes per game in 79 contests. The excellent play of White this season could make the decision to trade LaVine – and his max contract – a lot easier in the offseason. 

GAME STORYLINES: MIAMI

Two years ago, the Miami Heat finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 53-29 and came within 1 game of reaching the NBA Finals. Last year, injuries to stars Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro resulted in 9 fewer wins and a spot in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament. Miraculously, Miami went from the play-in round all the way to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed behind the herculean efforts of Jimmy Butler. Miami became the second No. 8 seed in NBA history to make it to the Finals, joining the 1999 New York Knicks who did it during a strike-shortened season. 

Unfortunately for Miami, the 2023-24 season was also marred by injuries to Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. Butler missed 22 games with ankle, knee and calf injuries. Herro missed 40 games due to multiple foot injuries. Butler will miss tonight’s game with a sprained MCL. Miami actually went 13-9 without Butler during the regular season which is a testament to the organization’s penchant for getting a team full of guys who play very hard regardless of who is on the court. Butler and Herro both led the team with identical 20.8 ppg averages during the regular season. 

The injury woes extended beyond Butler and Herro as trade acquisition Terry Rozier is dealing with neck spasms. He has missed Miami’s last 5 games and will not play in tonight’s contest against Chicago. Miami traded for the 30-year-old Rozier on Jan. 23 and he averaged 16.4 ppg in 31 games with Miami. Rozier averaged around 20 ppg over his previous four seasons with Charlotte and would have provided a big scoring boost for Miami in the playoffs, especially with Butler out. 

All-Star center Bam Adebayo has been the most consistent and reliable Heat player over the past two seasons as the team dealt with a slew of injuries. The 26-year-old averaged 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals on 52.1 percent from the floor in 71 games this season. He made his third All-Star game appearance this season and was named a starter for the injured Joel Embiid. Adebayo was the first Miami player to start in an All-Star game since Dwayne Wade in 2016. 

If Miami gets past the Bulls and hopes to advance in the playoffs without Butler, they’ll need big contributions from sharpshooter Duncan Robinson (12.9 pts, 2.8 asts, 2.8 threes), rookie swingman Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11.9, 3.8 rebs, 1 stl, 48.9% from 2) and forward Caleb Martin (10 pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.3 threes). All three players have had several big games in the absence of Butler and other key players throughout the regular season. The 23-year-old rookie Jaquez is yet another unheralded rookie who ended up being a very good player for Miami. He was selected 18th overall in the first round of the draft by Miami and finished eighth in scoring among all rookies.  

THE PICK: HEAT (-1.5)

Miami was 13-9 during the regular season without Jimmy Butler and “Heat Culture” appears to be a real thing especially in the playoffs/play-in. I think Miami will have several unheralded guys play well tonight and they’ll handle the Bulls. Lay the Point(s) and take the Heat!