NBA Picks 4/4 – Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
The Golden State Warriors (41-34, 10th in the Western Conference) visit the Houston Rockets (38-37, 11th in the Western Conference) tonight at the Toyota Center. Both teams are fighting to secure the final spot of the play-in tournament, Golden State currently holds a three-game lead over Houston in the standings. Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 227. The teams are meeting for the third and final time tonight. Golden State won the first two contests and has dominated Houston of late, winning 12 in a row against them dating back to 2020.
Golden State enters tonight’s game playing some of their best basketball of the season after a 104-100 win over the visiting Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night. It was the Warriors fifth straight win and ended the Mavericks seven-game winning streak. Houston is coming off a 113-106 loss at Minnesota on Tuesday night. They’ve lost two in a row after an 11-game winning streak pulled them within one game of Golden State for the tenth seed in the West.
GAME STORYLINES: GOLDEN STATE
The trio of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson began playing together for Golden State during the 2012-2013 season, and in the 11 seasons since then, they’ve become one of the great dynasties in NBA history. The trio has won four NBA championships – 2015, 2017, 2018, 2022 – and won an NBA-record 73 games during the 2015-16 season. Since finishing 53-29 and winning the title in 2022, Golden State has had some difficulties over the past 2 seasons as injuries and Draymond Green’s antics have resulted in them barely making the playoffs.
The majority of the 2022-23 season was tarnished by injuries to Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins – who missed a combined 71 games – and a leaked video of an October 2022 practice where Draymond Green punched teammate Jordan Poole in the face. Golden State got off to a poor start due to these issues but were able to claw their way into the playoffs with a 44-38 record and secure the No.6 seed. They knocked off the young, upstart Sacramento Kings in a hard-fought seven-game series in the first round and then were eliminated by the No. 7 seed Lakers in round two.
This season has also been marred by more injuries for Andrew Wiggins and more controversy surrounding Draymond Green. Green has been suspended for a total of 17 games due to two separate on-court alterations and was recently ejected in the first quarter of a critical game at Orlando on Mar. 27. Golden State is 30-20 with Green and 11-14 without him this season which indicates how important he is to the team.
Despite Golden State’s uneven season, superstar guard Steph Curry has put together another spectacular season in year 15. The 35-year-old, 9-time All-Star is averaging 26.4 points, 5 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 4.8 threes while shooting 40.4 percent from beyond the arc through 69 games. Curry’s tremendous play has carried Golden State for almost the entire season and kept them afloat in the tough Western Conference. If Draymond can stay on the floor and the entire team is intact, Golden State may be able to make a deep playoff run with Curry still playing at an elite level.
Golden State has received significant contributions from a trio of promising young players in athletic forward Jonathan Kuminga (16.3 pts, 4.8 rebs, 2.3 threes, 52% from 2), along with rookies Brandin Podziemski (9.2 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.7 asts) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (7.6 pts, 4.8 rebs, 1 blk, 70.4% from 2). The 21-year-old Kuminga is having a breakout season after struggling during his first two seasons. Golden State selected him No. 7 overall in the 2021 NBA draft and he’s now living up to expectations. Jackson-Davis is averaging 12.9 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 71.2 percent from the floor in 9 starts this year. All three players have the potential to be great building blocks for the future as the careers of Golden State’s Big Three – Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson – wind down.
GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON
In January 2021, the Houston Rockets traded away their franchise player James Harden to Brooklyn and decided to rebuild from scratch with young players and draft picks. Not surprisingly, the next two and a half years brought a slew of losses for the Rockets as they finished with loss totals of 65, 62 and 60 over the past three seasons. Fortunately for the Rockets, they were able to make a series of excellent draft picks and shrewd personnel moves which has allowed them to make tremendous improvement this season.
In the first round of the 2021 draft, Houston selected guard Jalen Green with the No. 2 pick and center Alperen Sengun with the No. 16 pick. The following year, Houston selected Auburn forward Jabari Smith Jr. with the No. 3 pick. All three guys have been outstanding so far in their young NBA careers. Green was second among rookies in scoring at 17.3 ppg and was named to the All-Rookie First Team. Sengun and Green have the potential to be All-Stars in the very near future.
Prior to this season, Houston signed veteran guard Fred VanVleet to a three-year, $130 million contract and hired Ime Udoka as head coach. Udoka was praised for turning the 2021-22 Boston Celtics from an underachieving team to the NBA Finals runner-up. He was fired by Boston after an improper relationship with a female staff member of the Celtics prior to the 2022-23 season. These series of astute moves by Houston have already led to a 16-game improvement for the Rockets this season, as they’ve gone from one of the worst teams in the NBA last season to being on the cusp of making the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Houston, star center Alperen Sengun went down with a right ankle/leg injury in a March 10 win against Sacramento and is not expected back this season. Sengun led the team with 21.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, he also added 5 assists and 1.2 steals on 53.7 percent shooting from the floor. Guard Jalen Green is averaging 20 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.4 threes across 75 games. The explosive 22-year-old guard is putting up 30.8 ppg over his last 10 contests as he’s increased his scoring with Sengun out. Fred VanVleet is averaging 16.8 points, a career-high 8 assists, 1.4 steals and 3.1 threes through 68 games in his first season as a Rocket. All three players have been pivotal in the Rockets surprising turnaround this season.
THE PICK: WARRIORS (-3.5)
Golden State has been in playoff mode for about 10 days now and I don’t think the relatively young and inexperienced Houston Rockets are prepared to handle a locked in Golden State team in a high-stakes game. Lay the Points and take the Warriors!