AFC Championship Picks – KC Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

AFC Championship Picks – KC Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The winner advances to Super Bowl LVIII (58) in Las Vegas on February 11. Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 44.5. Kansas City advanced to the AFC title game after pounding Miami 26-7 in the opening round of the playoffs and outlasting the Buffalo Bills 27-24 last Sunday in Buffalo. The top seed Baltimore Ravens hammered the visiting Houston Texans 34-10 last Saturday in the Divisional round of the playoffs after earning a first round bye. These teams last met in September 2021 with Baltimore prevailing 36-35 at home, Kansas City beat Baltimore in each of the previous three seasons prior to that loss. The last time Baltimore hosted an AFC title game was in January 1971 when the franchise was known as the Baltimore Colts.

Sunday’s game will likely feature the last two NFL MVP’s as reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes faces 2023 MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Jackson is one of five finalists up for the NFL MVP award, the winner will be announced on February 8. Mahomes has won the NFL MVP Award twice, while Jackson is aiming for his second NFL MVP Award. Jackson and Mahomes have faced each other four times in their careers, with Mahomes and the Chiefs winning three of the four games. 

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY 

On April 27, 2017 the Kansas City Chiefs made the decision to trade up 17 spots in the draft to select Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes with the No. 10 pick. At the time, most NFL spectators didn’t think much of the move but its ended up being one of the shrewdest and most impactful moves in NFL history as Patrick Mahomes is having arguably the best start to a career for a quarterback in the history of the game. Andy Reid handed the reigns over to Mahomes in his second season in 2018 and Mahomes has taken the NFL by storm ever since. Mahomes has won 2 Super Bowls, 2 NFL MVPs, 2 Super Bowl MVPs, and owns a 13-3 playoff record in his 6 seasons as an NFL starter. Mahomes has now advanced to the AFC championship game in all 6 seasons as a starting quarterback.

Patrick Mahomes had somewhat of a down year this season when you consider the gaudy numbers he’s put up in his career. An inexperienced and inconsistent wide receiver unit contributed to the slight dip in Mahomes production as the Kansas City receivers led the NFL in drops with 44. Mahomes finished the season with 4,184 passing yards and 27 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, his passing yards and passing touchdowns were the second lowest were of his career, while the 14 interceptions were a career-high. Despite the uneven regular season, Mahomes has been excellent in both of Kansas City’s playoff wins and is a win away from advancing to the Super Bowl for a fourth time.

Despite Kansas City’s offense not being as explosive as it was in previous years, they’ve received outstanding seasons from rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice (79 catches for 938 yards and 7 touchdowns), All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce (team-leading 93 catches and 984 yards, along with 5 touchdowns) and second-year running back Isiah Pacheco (935 rushing yards, 244 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns). All three players have made huge contributions in Kansas City’s 2 playoff wins. Rice had 130 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card win against Miami, while Kelce (75 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Pacheco (97 yards and a touchdown) had big games in last week’s win at Buffalo. Kelce had not caught a touchdown since a November 20 loss to Philadelphia. 

For years, Kansas City’s defense was considered the weak link of the team, but everything has changed this season. The defense picked up the slack as the offense struggled a bit this season. They ranked second in yards allowed and points allowed. All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones (30 tackles, 10.5 sacks), defensive end George Karlaftis (47 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), linebacker Dru Tranquill (79 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (78 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery) are standouts on the defense. Jones was named an All-Pro for the second straight season. 

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

Prior to these playoffs, Lamar Jackson had received every possible accolade (NFL MVP, Pro Bowls, All-Pro selection, division titles, huge contract, etc.) a quarterback could attain in his 6 NFL seasons. After injuries and contentious contract negotiations marred the past 2 seasons, Jackson delivered an MVP-caliber season this year. He finished the season with a career-best 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, he also added 821 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. The only knock on Jackson was his lack of postseason success as he had a 1-3 record and put up abysmal numbers in those 4 playoff games. Questions about Jackson’s playoff failures arose again this season as Baltimore found themselves as the No.1 seed following an MVP regular season from Jackson. Baltimore lost at home to the Tennessee Titans the last time they were in this position in 2019.  

Lamar Jackson exorcised his playoff demons in last Saturday’s 34-10 shellacking of the Houston Texans. After a so-so first half in which Baltimore found themselves tied with Houston at 10, Baltimore came out on fire in the second half by scoring 24 unanswered points and shutting out Houston. Jackson finished the game with 152 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns in the win. Jackson’s success this season has been pretty remarkable when you consider starting running back J.K. Dobbins, starting pro bowl tight end Mark Andrews and speedy, back-up running back Keaton Mitchell all suffered season-ending injuries during the year. Andrews is questionable for Sunday’s game despite suffering a cracked fibula and ankle in Week 11.

As for healthy skill position players, rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers (77 catches for 858 yards, 5 touchdowns), running back Gus Edwards (810 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns), veteran pro bowl wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (35 catches for 565 yards, 3 touchdowns) and second-year tight end Isaiah Likely (30 catches for 411 yards, 5 touchdowns) have all played very well this season. Likely has done an excellent job filling in for Andrews, he’s caught a touchdown in three straight games and all 5 of his touchdowns have occurred over the last 5 games. 

The Baltimore Ravens finished with the No. 1 ranked defense this year which could evoke memories of the historic 2000 Ravens defense who went on to win the Super Bowl. That 2000 Ravens defense pitched 4 shut outs during the regular season and gave up a total of 23 points in their 4 playoff wins. These Ravens led the NFL in sacks (60) and points allowed.  Leading the way for the defense is breakout star defensive tackle Justin Madubuike. The fourth-year free-agent-to-be has come out of nowhere and put together an outstanding season, he finished the year with 56 tackles, 13 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Linebacker Patrick Queen (133 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 interception), safety Kyle Hamilton (81 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 ‘Pick 6’), linebacker Roquan Smith (158 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 interception) and former All-Pro linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (43 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) are also standouts on the Ravens stout defense. Smith and Hamilton were named to the All-Pro first-team.

THE PICK

Now that Lamar Jackson shed himself of the ‘Playoff Choker’ label against Houston last week, I think he’s ready to dominate the playoffs in a similar fashion to how he’s dominated the regular season, Lay the Points..Ravens 24, Chiefs 17