AFC Divisional Round Pick – Chiefs @ Bills

AFC Divisional Round Pick – Chiefs @ Bills

The AFC divisional round of the playoffs brings us a heated rivalry and a matchup of two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks as the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs visit the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 45.5. Both teams won their opening round playoff matchups as Kansas City soundly defeated visiting Miami 26-7 last Saturday night in what ended up being the fourth-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees. Buffalo knocked off visiting Pittsburgh 31-17 last Monday night, the game was postponed for one day due to a snowstorm that hit Western New York which prompted the governor to declare a state of emergency. 

These teams met in Week 14 with Buffalo pulling out a 20-17 win at Kansas City, the win sparked a 5-game winning streak for Buffalo to close out the regular season which allowed them to overtake the Miami Dolphins and win the AFC East. This will be the third playoff meeting in the last four seasons between Buffalo and Kansas City. Kansas City won both meetings, 38-24 in the 2020-2021 AFC Championship Game and an epic 42-36 OT win the following year in the AFC Divisional round. Buffalo won the previous two playoff matchups in 1991 and 1993.

The game features two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Buffalo’s Josh Allen and two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, both players were top 10 selections in the NFL draft a year apart, Mahomes was the No. 10 pick in 2017 and Allen was the No. 7 pick in 2018. They’ve developed into franchise quarterbacks and have each won 4 straight division titles. They’ve faced each other six times in their careers with each winning three times, Mahomes has won both playoff meetings. Sunday’s game will be their first playoff matchup in Buffalo and the first road playoff game in Mahomes career. Mahomes and Allen appear to be friends off the field as they’ve spent the past few off seasons golfing together. 

GAME STORYLINES: KANSAS CITY

The 2016 Kansas City Chiefs finished 12-4 and appeared to be set at quarterback with veteran Alex Smith, who just completed his second pro bowl season in his four years with Kansas City, and had his career rejuvenated under head coach Andy Reid. So, when Kansas City made the decision to trade up 17 spots in the 2017 NFL draft to select Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes with the 10th pick, it seemed like a puzzling move. The move looked even more questionable after Alex Smith had his best season of his career (career highs of 4,042 yards and 26 touchdowns, along with just 5 interceptions) in 2017, while Mahomes was the back-up who barely played as a rookie.  

In 2018, Andy Reid made the decision to move on from Alex Smith and start second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and the rest is history! Mahomes was named the NFL’s MVP in his first year as a starter by passing for a league-leading 50 touchdowns and led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game. In his second year as a starter, Mahomes led Kansas City to its first Super Bowl victory since 1969 and is in the midst of a hall of fame career. The 28-year-old Mahomes career accolades include 2 Super Bowls, 2 Super Bowl MVP’s, 2 NFL MVP’s and a 12-3 playoff record in his 6 seasons as a starter in the NFL. Mahomes numbers are slightly down this year due to an inexperienced and inconsistent wide receiver unit that led the NFL in drops (44) this year, he finished with 4,183 yards and 27 passing touchdowns to 14 interceptions.

Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice emerged as Kansas City’s top receiving threat this year, he finished the season with 79 catches for 938 yards and 7 touchdowns. Rice was excellent in his first career playoff game as he hauled in 8 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown against Miami last Saturday. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce also saw a dip in his production in a similar fashion to Patrick Mahomes but he still led the team with 984 receiving yards, he also added 5 touchdowns. Second-year running back Isiah Pacheco led the team with 935 rushing yards, he added 244 receiving yards and 9 total touchdowns. 

Kansas City’s defense has picked up the slack this season as the offense hasn’t been quite as strong as its been in previous years. They finished second in yards allowed and points allowed. All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones (30 tackles, 10.5 sacks), defensive end George Karlaftis (47 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), linebacker Dru Tranquill (79 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (78 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery) are standouts on the defense. Jones was named an All-Pro for the second straight season.

GAME STORYLINES: BUFFALO

On November 26, the Buffalo Bills were 6-6 after a tough 37-34 overtime loss at Philadelphia, it was their third loss in four games. The playoffs appeared to be a pipe dream as they sat 2 games behind first place Miami in the AFC East, and questions about whether the team should make wholesale changes after the season became louder. Buffalo reeled off 5 straight victories to win the AFC East for a fourth straight year and secured the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Superstar quarterback Josh Allen totaled 11 touchdowns (5 passing, 6 rushing) during the 5-game winning streak. 

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen completed another prolific season in 2023, he finished the year with 4,306 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and a career-worst 18 interceptions, he also added a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. Allen became the first player in NFL history to record four straight seasons of 40 combined touchdowns and the second player in NFL history to reach 50 rushing touchdowns. Allen gets a lot of criticism due to his high number of turnovers but his rushing production more than makes up for it. Allen was tremendous in last week’s 31-17 wild card win against Pittsburgh as he went 21-30 for 3 touchdowns, no interceptions and rushed 8 times for 74 yards with a touchdown.  

Star wide receiver Stephon Diggs (107 catches for 1,183 yards, 8 touchdowns), second-year running back James Cook (1,122 rushing yards, 445 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns), rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (73 catches for 673 yards, 2 touchdowns) and second-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir (39 catches for 611 yards, 2 touchdowns) are the key contributors on the Bills offense. Talented wide receiver Gabe Davis (45 catches for 746 yards, 7 touchdowns) suffered a knee injury in Buffalo’s Week 18 win at Miami, he missed last week’s wild card win against Pittsburgh and is considered questionable for Sunday’s game. 

THE PICK

The Bills current 6-game winning streak started at Kansas City and they get to host Kansas City in the playoffs this time around, I like the Bills to avenge the playoff losses to Mahomes here, Lay the Points…Bills 31, Chiefs 21

AFC Divisional Round Pick – Chiefs @ Bills