Wildcard Picks – Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

Wildcard Picks – Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

The opening round of the NFL playoffs kicks off this weekend with the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers (9-8) visiting the No. 2 seed Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Dallas is a 7-point favorite and the total is 50.5. Green Bay has dominated the series of late by winning nine of the last ten head-to-head matchups against Dallas dating back to the 2009 season. Sunday’s matchup will have a much different feel to it due to Aaron Rodgers no longer being Green Bay’s starting quarterback as he was in nine of the previous ten meetings. Both teams enter the playoffs playing their best ball of the season, Green Bay has won six of their final eight games, while Dallas has won seven of their last nine games.

Sunday’s game will be the ninth playoff meeting between these franchises. The series is tied 4-4 with Green Bay winning the last two in 2014 and 2016. The Troy Aikman-Emmit Smith-Michael Irving led championship Dallas teams of 1990’s eliminated Green Bay three straight years (1994-1996) enroute to two Super Bowl wins. The teams first playoff meeting was the infamous 1967 Ice Bowl where the temperature in Green Bay was 13 degrees below zero. 

GAME STORYLINES: GREEN BAY

For 15 seasons (2008-2022) 4-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers was the Green Bay Packers starting quarterback, he also made 10 Pro Bowls and won 1 Super Bowl. Following the 2019 season, Green Bay made the curious decision to draft Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in the first round (No. 26 overall) of the 2020 draft. The move was questioned by many due to Rodgers still performing at a high level in 2019 as he threw for 26 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and led the 13-3 Packers to the NFC Championship Game. The decision to draft Love looked even worse over the next 2 seasons as Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards while Green Bay finished with consecutive 13-3 records. Love also looked pedestrian in spot appearances in 2021 and 2022. 

Green Bay made the decision to part ways with Aaron Rodgers prior to this season which paved the way for Jordan Love to make his highly anticipated debut as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. After struggling through his first 9 starts of the season and Green Bay going nowhere fast at 3-6, Love caught fire over the final 8 games passing for 18 touchdowns and just 1 interception since Week 11. He ended the season passing for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions and a 64.2 completion percentage. Love’s first year stats as Green Bay’s starting quarterback compare favorably to his predecessor Aaron Rodgers 2008 debut as Green Bay’s starting quarterback when Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards with 28 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 16 games. We’ll see if Love’s career takes the same Hall-of-Fame trajectory that Rodgers career did. 

Jordan Love’s excellent debut season is even more impressive when you consider the number of injuries to his key skill position players. Star running back Aaron Jones missed 6 games due to a knee injury while talented, second-year wide receiver Christian Watson has missed 9 games due to a lingering hamstring injury. Watson has not played since December 3, and is questionable for Sunday’s playoff game. Running back A.J. Dillon and starting tight end Luke Musgrave have also missed multiple games due to injury. As for healthy skill position players, Love has been able to count on a pair of young and gifted wide receivers in second-year player Romeo Doubs (59 catches for 674 yards, 8 touchdowns) and rookie Jayden Reed (64 catches for 793 yards, 8 touchdowns). Reed was a second-round pick out of Michigan State and is among a stellar class of rookie wide receivers who have played very well this season.

GAME STORYLINES: DALLAS

Despite getting off to an 8-3 start, the Dallas Cowboys seemed destined to be the No. 5 seed as they sat in second place in the NFC East behind the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles who were 10-1. But a stunning late-season collapse by Philadelphia allowed Dallas to swoop in, win the NFC East and secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. This was a huge development for the Cowboys as they will now get to host at least two playoff games at home where they went 8-0 this season. With the two guaranteed home games, Dallas is now in position to make the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1995 season. Dallas led the NFL with 5 All-Pro selections (wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, left guard Tyler Smith, right guard Zack Martin, cornerback Daron Bland, kicker Brandon Aubrey), which shows the level of talent on the team.

The biggest reason for the Cowboys great success this season has been the Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb connection. Prescott has had one of the best seasons of his 8-year career, passing for 4,516 yards with an NFL-high 36 touchdowns to 9 interceptions while completing a career-high 69.5 percent of his passes. Lamb finished with a league-high 135 catches for 1,749 yards with 12 touchdowns. Lamb has had a historic season as he eclipsed Michael Irvin’s franchise record for catches and yards in a season (1995), and he became the fourth wide receiver in NFL history to record 125 catches and 10 touchdown catches in a season.  

Running back Tony Pollard (1,005 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns), second-year tight end Jake Ferguson (71 catches for 761 yards, 5 touchdowns) and veteran speedster Brandin Cooks (54 catches for 657 yards, 8 touchdowns) are also weapons in the Cowboys offense. The 26-year-old Pollard has now put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Cooks eight touchdowns catches are his highest total since 2016 when he was with New Orleans.

The Cowboys defense wasn’t quite as strong as its been in recent years but they did get another dominant season from superstar linebacker Micah Parsons. The 24-year-old Parsons finished the season with 64 tackles, 14 sacks and 1 forced fumble. Second-year cornerback Daron Bland led the NFL with 9 interceptions and set an NFL record with five pick-six’s, he was named to the All-Pro team after beginning the season as a backup. Bland will likely form a lockdown defensive backfield duo next season with pro bowler Trevon Diggs, when he returns from injury. 

THE PICK

Dallas is unbeatable at home and I think Dak will have an easy time picking apart Green Bay’s porous secondary, Lay the Points… Dallas 38, Green Bay 21 

Wildcard Picks – Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys