NFL Picks 1/6 – Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts feeling like a playoff game

NFL Picks 1/6- Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts feeling like a playoff game

The final week of the NFL’s regular season concludes with the Houston Texans (9-7) visiting the Indianapolis Colts (9-7) in a win-or-go home game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night. The winner of this game will clinch a playoff spot and the AFC South division crown if Jacksonville loses. 

The loser will have their season come to an end. Houston is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 47.5. Indianapolis won the first meeting 31-20 back in Week 3 on September 24, and has won five of the last seven against Houston. Houston is coming off a 26-3 shellacking of the visiting Tennessee Titans last week, while Indianapolis held off the visiting Las Vegas Raiders 23-20 last Sunday.

Both of these teams selected quarterbacks in the top five of the 2022 draft in effort to land that elusive franchise quarterback which the majority of NFL teams search for every season. Houston selected C.J. Stroud second overall and Indianapolis selected Anthony Richardson fourth overall. Both quarterbacks lived up to the hype almost immediately but Richardson suffered a season-ending injury after participating in just four games, while Stroud has been fantastic as a rookie and is the frontrunner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. If both players can stay healthy, it’s possible that we could see a highly competitive rivalry between both players for years to come as they’ll play twice a year. 

GAME STORYLINES: HOUSTON

For the past three seasons, the Houston Texans have failed to win more than 4 games in a season, they’ve won a total of 11 games over that span. It appeared as if Houston shot themselves in the foot last season by winning 2 of their final 3 games to finish 3-13-1 and squandered the highly coveted No. 1 overall pick. 

Houston ended up selecting Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 picks as the “consolation prize” but Stroud has taken the NFL by storm as a rookie and has a chance to lead Houston to its first division title since 2018. Houston also traded up 9 spots to the No. 3 pick to select Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr. 

Quarterback C.J. Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, he’s thrown for 3,844 yards with 21 passing touchdowns, 5 interceptions and 3 rushing touchdowns across 14 games. Stroud became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for at least 300 yards in 4 consecutive games earlier in the season.  He passed for a rookie-record 470 yards in a 39-37 win against Tampa Bay on November 5. Stroud is the overwhelming favorite to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Stroud’s weapons on offense include wide receiver Nico Collins (71 catches for 1,102 yards, 7 touchdowns), running back Devin Singletary (835 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns) and tight end Dalton Schultz (54 catches for 593 yards, 5 touchdowns). The 24-year-old Collins is having a breakout season in year three with Stroud at the helm. Singletary and Schultz signed as free agents in the offseason and have had excellent debut seasons with Houston. Houston’s offense suffered a huge blow when rookie wideout Tank Dell was lost for the season after fracturing his left fibula in a 22-17 win against Denver on December 3. Dell finished with 709 yards and 7 touchdowns in 11 games.

Houston’s other prized rookie Will Anderson Jr. has had a solid rookie year putting up 44 tackles, 7 sacks across 14 games. Defensive end Jonathan Greenard (52 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), linebacker Blake Cashman (team-leading 93 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 interception) and second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (38 tackles, 5 interceptions) are also standouts on Houston’s defense. 

GAME STORYLINES: INDIANAPOLIS

In August 2019, the Indianapolis Colts franchise was sent into a tizzy when franchise quarterback Andrew Luck unexpectedly retired at the age of 29. The Colts have had 7 different starting quarterbacks in the 4 seasons after Luck retired. It looked as if the Colts had found Luck’s long-term replacement when they landed the No. 4 pick in the 2022 NFL draft and selected Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson. 

Unfortunately, Richardson’s rookie season only lasted 4 games after he suffered an injury to the AC joint in his right throwing shoulder in the second quarter of a Week 5 win against Tennessee. Richadson also missed a game due to a concussion.

Back-up quarterback Gardner Minshew II has filled in admirably for the highly touted Richardson. Minshew has thrown for 3,164 yards with 15 touchdowns to 9 interceptions and 3 rushing touchdowns in 16 appearances. Minshew has the Colts in position to win their first division title since 2014.  After spending the last 2 seasons backing up Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, the 27-year-old former sixth round pick is making the most out of his starting opportunity in Indianapolis. 

The Colts have a plethora of weapons on offense which include the running back duo of Zack Moss (764 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Jonathan Taylor (553 yards, 6 touchdowns) along with wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. (104 for 1,108 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Josh Downs (723 yards, 2 touchdowns). Star running back Jonathan Taylor has been limited to 9 games to due injuries and a contract dispute but he has been outstanding when he’s on the field. The 26-year-old Pittman is having the best season of his career as he’s established career-highs in catches and yards. The rookie Dobbs is one of the more productive members of the stellar 2023 rookie wide receiver class.

THE PICK

Indianapolis has won 3 straight at home and I think Houston is a little too inexperienced to win a high-stakes game like this on the road, Take the Point(s)…Colts 28, Texans 20

NFL Picks 1/6- Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts feeling like a playoff game