NFL Christmas Picks 12/25/23 – Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

NFL Christmas Picks 12/25/23 – Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The top seeds from the AFC and NFC meet up in a potential Super Bowl preview as the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) visit the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) on Christmas night at Levi’s Stadium. San Francisco is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 46.5. This Christmas Day matchup will be just the second time in NFL history that the two teams with best records in each conference meet this late in the season. The first time this occurred was in 2005 when Seattle beat visiting Indianapolis 28-13 in Week 16, both of those teams ended up securing the No. 1 seed for the playoffs, but only Seattle was able to advance to the Super Bowl. Baltimore is coming off a convincing 23-7 win at Jacksonville last Sunday night, while San Francisco ran past Arizona 45-29 last week. 

The game also features the top two MVP favorites in San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy at (-225) and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson at (-600). Jackson was named the NFL’s MVP in 2019,  he was the youngest quarterback to ever win the award at 22-year-old and the second-youngest player to ever win it behind a 21-year-old Jim Brown in 1957.

GAME STORYLINES: BALTIMORE

For the past two seasons, the Baltimore Ravens and superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson engaged in testy contract negotiations due to Jackson’s inability to stay healthy and replicate his spectacular 2019 MVP season. It appeared as if Lamar Jackson joining another team was a real possibility until Baltimore signed him to a 5-year, 260-million-dollar contract last April. The move has worked out perfectly for both sides as Jackson is on pace to set career-highs in passing yards, completion percentage and rushing touchdowns. He’s also started all 14 games this year, which is the most he’s played since the 2020 season. 

On the season, Jackson has passed for 3,105 yards with 17 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, and rushed for 741 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. He has a good shot at taking home a second NFL MVP award if Baltimore upsets San Francisco. Jackson’s main weapons on offense include rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers (65 catches for 680 yards, 4 total touchdowns), veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham (32 catches for 519 yards, 3 touchdowns) and running back Gus Edwards (663 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns). Flowers leads the team in catches and yards as a rookie. The 31-year-old former Pro Bowler Odell Beckham Jr. has experienced sort of a renaissance in Baltimore as his 519 yards are the most he’s had since the 2019 season. Edwards 11 rushing touchdowns is tied for 4th in the NFL.

Unfortunately, Baltimore’s offense has been decimated by injuries. Starting running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury (torn Achilles) in the season opener against Houston. Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews was placed on the season-ending IR list after suffering a cracked fibula and ankle ligament damage in a Week 11 win against Cincinnati. Dynamic rookie running back Keaton Mitchell suffered a torn ACL that ended his season last week at Jacksonville. 

Baltimore’s defense ranks among the elite again this year, which continues a 20+ year tradition of excellence dating back to the historic 2000 Super Bowl champion Ravens defense.  Baltimore leads the NFL with 50 sacks and has given up the fewest points in the NFL. Leading the way for the defense is breakout star defensive tackle Justin Madubuike. The fourth-year free-agent-to-be has come out of nowhere and put together an All-Pro season by registering 45 tackles, 12 sacks and 2 forced fumbles across 14 games. Linebacker Patrick Queen (112 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), safety Kyle Hamilton (76 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 ‘Pick 6’), linebacker Roquan Smith (143 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble) and former All-Pro linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (36 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble) are also standouts on the Ravens stout defense. 

GAME STORYLINES: SAN FRANCISCO

The past two seasons have ended in heartbreak for the San Francisco 49ers as they suffered gut-wrenching road losses in consecutive NFC Championship games. The 49ers appear to have bottled up the frustration of how the last two seasons ended and unleashed a fury on the NFL this season.  They lead the NFL in point differential at +191 and 10 of their 11 wins have been by double digits. San Francisco undoubtedly has the deepest and most talented roster in the NFL.

Quarterback Brock Purdy went from being “Mr. Irrelevant” as the last pick (No. 262 overall) of the 2022 NFL draft to being unexpectedly thrust into a starting position as a rookie to now being the MVP frontrunner and perhaps the most polarizing topic in all of sports right now. “Is He Really Elite”, “Is He A Game Manager”, “Is He Just Benefitting From Playing With All-Pro’s”, “Is He A System Quarterback”, everyone seems to have a stern take on Brock Purdy’s capabilities. Whatever you may think of Purdy, he is having a spectacular season. Purdy has passed for 3,795 yards and thrown 29 touchdowns to 7 interceptions while completing nearly 70 percent (69.8) of his passes, he also has 2 rushing touchdowns. Purdy leads the NFL in touchdown passes, completion percentage, and QBR, and is second in passing yards.

All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey is Purdy’s partner-in-crime for the 49ers explosive offense. McCaffrey has rushed for a league-leading 1,292 yards and registered a league-high 20 touchdowns on the season. McCaffrey is also in the MVP discussion, the last running back to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Wideouts Brandon Aiyuk (59 catches for 1,090 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Deebo Samuel (49 catches for 767 yards, 11 total touchdowns), along with tight end George Kittle (55 catches for 865 yards, 6 touchdowns) are also dangerous weapons at Purdy’s disposal. All four players are capable of making game-breaking, long scoring plays which makes the offense almost impossible to stop most weeks. Ten-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle remains one of the best in the game at age 35 and should be a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

San Francisco still has a strong defense but they are no longer in a position where they need to bail out or carry the offense due to the emergence of Purdy and the offense. The defense leads the NFL in interceptions, takeaways and turnover differential. 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year defensive tackle Nick Bosa leads the team with 10.5 sacks, he’s also forced 2 fumbles. All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (116 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 4 interceptions 4 forced fumbles), defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (40 tackles, 6 sacks) and cornerback Charvarius Ward (60 tackles, 4 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 ‘pick 6’) are also tremendous players on defense.

THE PICK

I don’t see any weaknesses for the 49ers, I expect them to win and cover every game for the rest of the season and playoffs, Lay the Points…49ers 38, Ravens 27