NFL Picks 12/16 – Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Picks 12/16 – Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Minnesota Vikings (7-6) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) in a rare Saturday afternoon game at Paycor Stadium on the NFL Network. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite and the total is 40.5. These teams last met two seasons ago with host Cincinnati pulling out a 27-24 overtime win. Minnesota is coming off a 3-0 shutout win at Las Vegas last week as Greg Joseph hit a 36-yard field goal with 1:57 left in the game. It was the first 3-0 game since November 2007 and the seventh in the Super Bowl era. Cincinnati is coming off a 34-14 win over the visiting Indianapolis Colts last week, it was their second straight win and second straight game where they’ve scored exactly 34 points. 

GAME STORYLINES: MINNESOTA

You could say the 2022 Minnesota Vikings were more lucky than good as they won an NFL-record 11 games by one possession or less and finished 13-4. The 13 wins were their most wins since the 2017 season. The Vikings luck appears to have run out this season as they got off to an 0-3 start, all 3 losses were by 6 points or less and they’ve also suffered two catastrophic injuries. Pro bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season after he tore his Achilles on October 29. All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson has been limited to just 6 of 13 games after an injured his right hamstring suffered on October 8 kept him out for almost 2 months. Jefferson made his return from injury last week at Las Vegas but left that game with a chest injury. He’s questionable but is expected to play on Saturday. 

Despite the injuries to Cousins and Jefferson, Minnesota is still in a great position to make the playoffs at 7-6 and are just two games behind first place Detroit in the NFC North. A five-game winning streak in October allowed Minnesota to stay afloat without Cousins and Jefferson. Tight end T.J. Hockenson (85 catches for 839 yards, 5 touchdowns), rookie wideout Jordan Addison (56 catches for 713 yards, 7 touchdowns) and running back Alexander Mattison (660 rushing yards, 174 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns) have been constant and steady performers throughout the season for Minnesota’s offense. Hockenson is on pace to set career-high in yards and touchdowns in his first full season with the Vikings. Addison was selected in the first round (No. 23 overall – USC) by Minnesota, he ranks second in catches and yards amongst all rookie wideouts and his 7 touchdowns is tied for first. 

For most of the season, journeyman quarterback Joshua Dobbs provided the NFL its inspirational story of the year as he went from being on five teams since the start of the 2022 season to joining the Minnesota Vikings on October 31 and coming off the bench to lead them to a last-second victory a few days later in Atlanta. Dobbs started the next game against New Orleans and won again. He then lost his next 2 starts and was benched for Nick Mullens during last week’s 3-0 win at Las Vegas. Dobbs has now been demoted to the third string and Minnesota will start Mullens at quarterback, he’ll be the fourth quarterback to start for them this season.

Minnesota’s underrated defense is led by Pro-Bowl linebacker Danielle Hunter, the 29-year-old has been dominant this season putting up 52 tackles, 13.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles across 13 games. He has 84.5 career sacks in his outstanding 9-year career. Safeties Harrison Smith (75 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and Camryn Bynum (103 tackles, 2 interceptions, 0.5 sack, 1 forced fumble) along with linebacker D.J. Wonnum (52 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 fumble recovery touchdown) are also having great seasons. The 34-year-old veteran Smith continues to play at a high level in his 14th season.

GAME STORYLINES: CINCINNATI

For nearly 5 decades, the Cincinnati Bengals franchise had been considered one of the worst franchises in any sport. Their fortunes changed dramatically in April 2020 when they selected LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with No. 1 in the draft. Burrow entered the NFL as one of the most ballyhooed quarterback prospects in the history of the draft after a prolific 2019 season at LSU that saw him win a national championship with a 15-0 record and throw for a whopping 60 touchdowns. Burrow has exceeded the hype in the NFL as he’s led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl in his second season and then the AFC Championship game last year. Prior to Burrow’s arrival, Cincinnati’s last playoff win was in January 1991, and their last Super Bowl appearance occured in January 1989. 

The only negative about Burrow is health as two of his four seasons have ended prematurely due to season ending injuries. A torn left ACL ended Burrow’s rookie year in 2020 and a torn ligament in his right wrist suffered in Week 11 at Baltimore ended his 2023 season. Burrow finished the season with 2,309 passing yards and 15 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in 10 games. Burrow’s season-ending injury appeared to spell doom for the Bengals especially after a listless 16-10 loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers in their first game after Burrow’s injury. Backup quarterback Jake Browning struggled in that loss to Pittsburgh.

NFL Picks 12/16

After looking pedestrian in his first NFL start, Jake Browning turned things around quickly in his second start at Jacksonville when he completed 32 of 37 passes (86.5%) for 354 yards and a touchdown in a 31-28 overtime win. He also added 2 carries for 22 yards with a rushing touchdown and became the first quarterback in NFL history to put up a stat line of 85% completions, 350+ yards, 20+ rushing yards and a touchdown. Browning followed that up with a 275-yard, 2 touchdown performance in a 34-14 win over visiting Indianapolis. Browning’s ascension to a productive starting quarterback is pretty remarkable when you consider he was undrafted out of Washington in 2019 and spent the first 4 years of his career on the practice squads of Minnesota and Cincinnati. 

All-Pro wideout Ja’Marr Chase continues to amaze in year three. The 23-year-old superstar has 89 catches for 1,092 yards and 7 touchdowns through 13 games. Chase hauled in 11 catches for 149 yards with a touchdown in the win at Jacksonville, his big night may have provided a confidence boost for the inexperienced Jake Browning. Running back Joe Mixon (768 rushing yards, 327 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns) is having another solid season for the Bengals. The 27-year-old Mixon is very effective as a runner and a pass catcher out of the backfield. Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson (34 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) is the headliner on defense. He recorded 2 sacks in last week’s win against Indianapolis and has a sack in 4 straight games.

THE PICK

Minnesota is starting their fourth quarterback on Saturday while Jake Browning is playing like a pro bowler, Lay the 3 Points… Bengals 34, Vikings 21

NFL Picks 12/16