NFL Picks 12/2 – San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com
In what may be the most hyped and anticipated matchup of the season, the San Francisco 49ers (8-3) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) in a battle of the NFC’s top two teams and a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game.
San Francisco is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 47.5. San Francisco is coming off a 31-13 win at Seattle on Thanksgiving, it was their third straight win. Philadelphia outlasted the visiting Buffalo Bills 37-31 in an overtime classic for their fifth straight win.
The game has an added level of anticipation due to these teams meeting for the first time since last season’s NFC Championship Game on January 29. Philadelphia routed visiting San Francisco 31-7, the trajectory of the game changed drastically midway through the first quarter when Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick stripped 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy of the ball and also injured his elbow.
The injury forced Purdy to leave the game, he was replaced by veteran journeyman quarterback Josh Johnson, who was ineffective and then knocked out of the game after suffering a concussion in the third quarter. San Francisco did not have a third quarterback in uniform so Purdy was forced back into the game with a badly injured elbow. Purdy could not throw the ball downfield due to the elbow injury which limited San Francisco’s offense to just short passes and runs for the rest of the game.
GAME STORYLINES: SAN FRANCISCO
A case could be made that the San Francisco 49ers are the most talented and balanced team in the NFL as they rank among the top 5 in offense and defense. They also have one of the top front offices in the NFL which is responsible for putting together a top-notch roster that made the Super Bowl in 2019 and the NFC Championship Game in 2021.
The 49ers brass then pulled off several astute moves that really improved the team in drafting quarterback Brock Purdy with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft and adding All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey and 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young to the roster via trades.
Brock Purdy’s meteoric rise from the last pick of the 2022 NFL draft (No. 262 overall) to becoming one of the top-rated quarterbacks in the NFL a year later is remarkable. Purdy began his rookie season as the third-string quarterback behind Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, but injuries to both players thrust Purdy into the starting spot in Week 12 of last season.
Purdy made his first NFL start a little less than a year on December 11 at Tampa Bay, and he hasn’t looked back since. Purdy was fantastic as a rookie throwing for 1,374 yards with 13 touchdowns to 4 interceptions across 9 appearances and 6 starts. He went 6-0 as a starter and became the first rookie in franchise history to start and win a playoff game.
Year two has been even better for Purdy as he’s thrown for 2,871 with 19 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and rushed for 2 touchdowns through 11 starts. He’s also completing a league-high 70.2% of his passes. Purdy has a plethora of weapons on offense led by All-Pro superstar running back Christian McCaffrey, who has rushed for an NFL-leading 939 rushing yards, along with 389 receiving yards and 16 total touchdowns.
Earlier in the year McCaffrey had a streak where he scored a touchdown in 17 straight games which tied an NFL record. Fourth-year wideout Brandon Aiyuk (45 catches for 881 yards, 5 touchdowns) has emerged as San Francisco’s top receiving threat this season, his 19.6 yards per catch leads the NFL. Ten-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle Trent Williams remains one of the best in the game at age 35, and is a surefire future Hall of Famer.
San Francisco’s defense ranks among the best in the NFL led by 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Joey Bosa (33 tackles, 8 sacks, 1 forced fumble) and All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner (95 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles) Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (37 tackles, 6 sacks), linebacker Dre Greenlaw (79 tackles, 1.5 sacks), defensive end Arik Armstead (21 tackles, 5 sacks) and cornerback Charvarus Ward (51 tackles, 2 interceptions) are also standouts on the defense.
The addition of defensive end Chase Young just adds icing on the cake, the former No. 2 overall pick (Ohio State) and 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year has struggled since a November 2021 torn ACL sidelined him for about a year. Leaving Washington for a championship situation in San Francisco could rejuvenate his career.
GAME STORYLINES: PHILADELPHIA
Last season, the Philadelphia Eagles won a franchise-record 14 games and advanced to the Super Bowl where they narrowly lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 38-35. History has shown that the Super Bowl loser often suffers a letdown in the following season but that hasn’t been the case with the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles.
They enter Sunday’s game with the NFL’s best record at 10-1 and have tied the 1991 Buffalo Bills for the best start for a team that lost the Super Bowl the previous year. Seven of Philadelphia’s ten wins have been by 7 points or less.
A big reason for Philadelphia’s success last season was the exceptional play of quarterback Jalen Hurts. After an up-and-down first 2 years in the NFL, Hurts passed for 3,701 yards with 22 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and rushed for 760 yards with 13 rushing touchdowns.
He finished second in the NFL MVP race to Patrick Mahomes. Hurts has seen his turnovers increase this season but he’s still thrown for 2,697 and combined for 29 touchdowns (18 passing, 11 rushing) through 11 games. Hurts is aided by the best offensive line in the NFL led by veteran All-Pro center Jason Kelce and right tackle Lane Johnson.
Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line is responsible for the ‘Brotherly Shove’ which is a short yardage package (usually at the goal line) where the offensive line pushes Jalen Hurts forward from the rear following the snap. The Brotherly Shove has a success rate of about 94 percent.
Wide receivers AJ Brown (73 catches for 1,050 yards, 7 touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (55 catches for 738 yards,5 touchdowns), along with running back D’Andre Swift (770 rushing yards, 201 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns) are the key skill position players in the Eagles offense. Brown set a franchise-record with 1,496 receiving yards last year which was his first season with the Eagles.
THE PICK
San Francisco is 8-0 (7 of the 8 wins have been by double digits) when they have their full complement of players, they’ll have everyone this week, so I expect another comfortable win for them….49ers 31, Eagles 21
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