NFL Picks 11/12 – New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

NFL Picks 11/12 – New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

by Thomas Quaynor for Wannamakeabet.com

The New Orleans Saints (5-4) visit the Minnesota Vikings (5-4) on Sunday afternoon at U.S. Bank Stadium. New Orleans is a 3-point favorite and the total is 40.5. New Orleans defeated the Chicago Bears 24-17 at home last Sunday for their second straight win. Minnesota rallied for a 31-28 win at Atlanta last week as newly acquired quarterback Joshua Dobbs passed for the winning touchdown with just 22 seconds left in the game. Minnesota has won four straight games. These teams met in Week 4 of last season at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with Minnesota winning 28-25.  

Sunday’s game will have a drastically different look from last season’s matchup as Minnesota won’t have quarterback Kirk Cousins, wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and running back Dalvin Cook. New Orleans won’t have quarterback Andy Dalton, running backs Latavious Murray and Mark Ingram II, and kicker Will Lutz. All eight players started and/or played key roles in last season’s game.

GAME STORYLINES

Since the retirement of future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees following the 2020 season, the New Orleans Saints have been searching for a suitable replacement at quarterback and looking to reposition themselves amongst the NFL’s elite. New Orleans won 3 straight NFC South division crowns (2018-2020) in Drew Brees’s final NFL seasons but have missed the playoffs for the last 2 seasons. Inconsistent quarterback play has played a big part in the Saints struggles. The Saints have started 6 different quarterbacks since the start of the 2021 season. They signed veteran quarterback Derek Carr to a 4-year deal last March in an effort to stabilize the position. 

The talented and oft-criticized Derek Carr spent the past 9 seasons starting for the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders. Carr passed for 217 touchdowns to 99 interceptions and made 4 Pro Bowls in those 9 turbulent seasons as a Raider. Despite the nice individual numbers, Carr led the Raiders to the playoffs just twice but instability with coaching and upper management may have also been factors in the lack of team success. Carr has been very good in his first season as a Saint passing for 2,121 yards with 10 touchdowns to 4 interceptions through 9 starts and the Saints now sit atop the NFC South division. 

Carr has a plethora of weapons on offense in running back Alvin Kamara, wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and quarterback/wide receiver/running back Taysom Hill. After missing the first 4 games due to a suspension, the 5-time pro bowler Kamara has 618 total yards and 3 touchdowns in 6 games. Olave and Shaheed are both in their second year and provide an explosive 1-2 combination. Shaheed’s 19.3 yards per catch leads the NFL, he had 3 catches for 153 yards and a touchdown in New Orleans 38-27 win at Indianapolis on October 29. Olave was second in receiving yards among rookies last season.

A case could be made that Taysom Hill is the most valuable Saints player. The quarterback/wide receiver/running back who is listed as a tight end has rushed for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns, caught 20 balls for 142 yards and a touchdown and passed for a touchdown. Hill has accounted for 5 touchdowns over the past 3 games and has been instrumental in the Saints two straight wins. Hill also became the sixth player in NFL history to join the 10/10/10 club of 10 passing touchdowns, 10 receiving touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns in a career. 

Last season the Minnesota Vikings made history by winning the most one-possession games in a season with 11, they finished 13-4. The Vikings luck appeared to run out in 2023 as they started 0-3 and lost all three games by one possession. To make things worse, Minnesota suffered two catastrophic injuries when All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson went down with a right hamstring injury against Kansas City on October 8 and quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles on October 29. Jefferson has not played since the injury, Sunday’s game against New Orleans will be the fifth straight game he’s missed. Cousins is out for the year. 

Despite the injuries to Minnesota’s best two offensive players, they’ve won 4 games in a row and have reverted back to last season’s penchant of winning close games. Three of the four wins have been by one possession, including last week’s 31-28 win at Atlanta. Minnesota has been able to withstand the loss of Jefferson due to the outstanding play of rookie wideout Jordan Addison. Minnesota selected him No. 23 overall in the first round of the draft. He’s put up 41 catches for 731 yards and 7 touchdowns across nine games, including a 10-catch, 123-yard, 2 touchdown performance against the tough San Francisco 49ers defense on Monday Night Football in Week 7. 

In perhaps the most inspirational storyline of the year, journeyman quarterback Joshua Dobbs came off the bench to lead Minnesota to a last second 28-24 win at Atlanta last week. Dobbs connected with Brandon Powell for a 6-yard touchdown with 22 seconds remaining in the game. This came just five days after Minnesota acquired him in a trade from Arizona. Dobbs opened the season as Arizona’s starting quarterback and started 8 games for them. Minnesota is his fifth team since the start of the 2022 season. The 28-year-old Dobbs was selected in the fourth round of the 2017 draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

THE PICK

Minnesota has been winning with smoke and mirrors in recent weeks, I don’t think they have enough on offense to handle the Saints defense, Lay the Points…Saints 31, Vikings 17

NFL Picks 11/12