NFL Picks 10/29 – Jacksonville Jags @ Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Picks 10/29 – Jacksonville Jags @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) on Sunday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium. Jacksonville is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 40.5. Jacksonville is coming off a 31-24 win at New Orleans on October 19, they’ve won four in a row. Pittsburgh rallied for a 24-17 win at the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday. These teams are meeting for the first since the 2020 season when Pittsburgh prevailed 27-3 at Jacksonville. 

GAME STORYLINES

In his three seasons at Clemson, quarterback Trevor Lawrence put together one of great careers in college football history. As a true freshman in 2018, Lawrence was the starting quarterback for a Clemson team that went 11-0 and won the National Championship with a convincing 44-16 win over Alabama. Lawrence finished his stellar three-year college career at Clemson with a 34-2 record as a starter and passed for 90 touchdowns. Lawrence entered the 2021 NFL draft as one of the most hyped quarterback prospects of all time, Jacksonville selected him with the first pick in the draft.

The NFL career of Trevor Lawrence got off to an inauspicious start as he passed for 12 touchdowns and tied the league-high with 17 interceptions in his rookie year, while Jacksonville finished with a dismal 3-14 record. Lawrence is now starting to fulfill the lofty expectations place upon him since his uneven rookie year. Last season he threw for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, along with 5 rushing touchdowns, and led Jacksonville to their first playoff win since the 2017 season. This season Lawrence has thrown for 1,643 yards with 8 touchdowns to 3 interceptions over 7 games for the AFC South division-leading Jaguars. 

Third-year running back Travis Etienne Jr. is also a key part of Jacksonville’s offense. Etienne was college teammates with Trevor Lawrence at Clemson and was also a first-round pick (No. 25) in the 2021 NFL draft. Etienne missed his entire rookie season after suffering a Lisfranc injury to his left foot during Jacksonville’s second preseason game. He rebounded nicely in year two, finishing with 1,125 rushing yards, 316 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Etienne has been even better this season as he’s totaled 700 yards and scored 7 touchdowns through 7 games. He’s scored 2 touchdowns in three straight games, which have all been wins. 

Jacksonville also has one of the better defenses in the NFL, they lead the NFL in takeaways with 16. The linebacking trio of Josh Allen (23 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), Trevon Walker (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Foyesade Oluokun (81 tackles, 1 interception, 1 defensive touchdowns) have been tremendous this season. Walker was the number one overall pick in the 2022 draft.

For 18 remarkable seasons (2004-2021) Ben Roethlisberger was the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, he won 2 Super Bowls and made 6 Pro Bowls. Three months after Roethlisberger retired in January 2022, the Steelers drafted local University of Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett in the first round (No. 20 overall) of the NFL draft. Injuries and inconsistency have marred Pickett’s career up to this point. Pickett has 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions through 19 NFL games since being drafted. Despite the modest production, Pickett has shown a knack for leading his team to comeback wins in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has trailed in the fourth quarter in 3 of their 4 wins. 

In the mold of the 1970’s ‘Steal Curtain’ and the great defenses of the mid 1990’s through the 2010’s, the current Steelers defense is also playing at a high level and boasts some elite talent. Leading the way is superstar linebacker TJ Watt (16 tackles, 8 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 1 defensive touchdown) and All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (team-high 52 tackles). A case could be made that Watt is now the best player (offense and defense) in the NFL and he’s the clear frontrunner for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Fourth year linebacker Alex Highsmith (21 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 interception) and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (16 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble are also playing well this year for a Pittsburgh defense that seems to be carrying the offense in most games this season.. 

THE PICK

Jacksonville has won 4 in a row, their offense and defense are clicking right now, I’m riding the hot hand, lay the points….Jacksonville 27, Pittsburgh 17