NFL Picks 10/22 – Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Picks 10/22 – Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles

by Thomas Quaynor – NFL analyst for Wannamakeabet.com

Two of the NFL’s best meet up on Sunday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins (5-1) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at Lincoln Financial Field.  Philadelphia is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 51.5. Miami is coming off a 42-21 win at home against the Carolina Panthers last week, Tua Tagovailoa passed for three scores and Tyreek Hill had 6 receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown in the win. Philadelphia lost 20-14 at the New York Jets last week, it was their first loss of the season. Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions in the loss.

The History

This game has an interesting backstory involving the two starting quarterbacks, the University of Alabama Crimson Tide and one of the more dramatic endings to a championship game. Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa were teammates at Alabama for two seasons in 2017 and 2018. During the 2017 National Championship game Alabama trailed Georgia 13-0 at halftime, Alabama head coach Nick Saban decided to bench sophomore Jalen Hurts in favor of true freshman Tua Tagovailoa. Tua rallied Alabama to a 26-23 walk-off overtime win after connecting with current Eagles wide receiver Devonta Smith on a 41-yard touchdown pass. 

Tua Tagovailoa was named Alabama’s starting quarterback over Jalen Hurts for the 2018 season and finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting as a true sophomore. Hurts then transferred to Oklahoma for the 2019 season where he led them to a Big 12 Championship and a spot in the BCS semifinal game. Both players were selected in the 2020 draft, Tua was selected 5th overall in the first round, while Hurts was selected 53rd overall in the second round. Sunday’s game will be the first time Tua and Hurts have faced each other in the NFL.

GAME STORYLINES   

The Miami Dolphins have spent the past 23 seasons looking for a franchise quarterback after Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino retired following the 1999 season. They appear to have finally found the heir apparent to Marino in fourth-year star Tua Tagovailoa. Inconsistency and injuries (including a potential career-ending concussion) hampered Tua for his first 3 seasons. All of those issues are a distant memory at the moment as Tua is playing at an MVP level through 6 games.

On the season, Tua has thrown for 1,876 yards with 14 touchdowns to 5 interceptions and is completing 71.1 percent of his throws. He leads the NFL in passing yards and is tied for the lead in passing touchdowns. Miami has the NFL’s top offense by a wide margin as they lead the league in offensive yards per game (498.7), passing yards per game (316.8), and rushing yards per game(181.8).

Tua’s top target on Miami’s explosive offense is superstar wideout Tyreek Hill. Miami acquired Hill prior to the 2022 after he put up 6 tremendous seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. The 29-year-old speedster exceeded all expectations in his first year as a Miami Dolphin finishing with career-highs of 119 catches and 1,710 yards. Hill’s 1,710 yards broke Miami’s single-season receiving record which was held by Mark Clayton from the 1984 season. Hill has picked up where he left off last season as he has 42 catches for 814 yards and 6 touchdowns through 6 games, he’s also averaging a whopping 19.4 yards per catch.

Third year wideout Jaylen Waddle (75 catches, 1,356 yards, 8 touchdowns in 2022), veteran running back Raheem Mostert (career-high 891 rushing yards in 2022) and rookie running back De’Von Achane (460 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, 12.1 yards per carry in 4 games this season) are also dangerous weapons in Miami’s offense. Waddle’s 1,356 last season was the third most receiving yards in franchise history. He has 24 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns through 5 games this season.

After barely playing in Miami’s first 2 games, Achane exploded for 203 yards and 4 touchdowns in Miami’s historic 70-20 blowout of visiting Denver in Week 3. He followed that up with two straight 100-yard rushing games before suffering a knee injury against the New York Giants on October 8. The knee injury landed Achane on injured reserve and he could be out until November 11. 

The Philadelphia Eagles completed a historic season last year as they won a franchise-record 14 games, set a franchise-record with 70 sacks and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Star wideout A.J. Brown also set a franchise-record with 1,496 receiving yards.

The biggest reason for the Eagles turnaround last season was the play of quarterback Jalen Hurts. After an up-and-down first two seasons, Hurts was exceptional last season in year three. Hurts passed for 3,701 yards, 22 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and racked up 760 rushing yards with 13 rushing touchdowns. Hurts finished second in the MVP race. Philadelphia rewarded Hurts with a 5-year, $255 million dollar extension last April.

Jalen Hurts has gotten off to somewhat of a slow start this season as he’s already thrown 7 interceptions in 6 games on the season, his 3 interceptions in last week’s loss at the New York Jets tied a career-high. Hurts threw just 6 interceptions in 15 games last season. Despite Hurts turnovers, the Eagles are 5-1 and are still viewed as a Super Bowl contender.

Wide receiver A.J. Brown (42 catches, 670 yards, 2 touchdowns through 6 games) is on pace for another tremendous season, he’s topped 120+ receiving yards in 4 straight games and is averaging 141 yards per game over that span. Running back D’Andre Swift (452 rushing yards, 115 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns) has also been outstanding in his first year with Philadelphia.

Perhaps, the biggest key for the Eagles offense is the elite offensive line. Left tackle Jordan Mailata, left guard Landon Dickerson, center Jason Kelce, right guard Sua Opeta and right tackle Lane Johnson form the best offensive line in the NFL.

They are also responsible for the unstoppable ‘Brotherly Shove’ which is a short yardage package where the offensive line pushes Jalen Hurts forward from the rear following the snap. The ‘Brotherly Shove’ has a success rate of over 93% since the start of last season.

Philadelphia’s defense is still among the best in the NFL at pressuring the quarterback. All-Pro linebacker Haason Reddick (49 tackles, 16 sacks, 5 forced fumbles in 2022), defensive end Josh Sweat (48 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 defensive touchdown in 2022) and rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter (the 9th overall pick in the 2023 draft) are the standouts on the defense.

Reddick leads the team with 5.5 sacks, Sweat and Carter are tied for second with 3.5. Carter was considered the top prospect in the 2023 draft for much of last season but some pre-draft legal troubles dropped his stock. Philadelphia traded up one spot to select Carter, who may end up being the best player from the 2023 draft. 

THE PICK

I think the Eagles bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss at New York, and the jury is still out on whether Miami can hang with the NFL’s elite, Lay the 2.5…Philadelphia 30, Miami 23