NFL Week #3 Picks – Can Cincy Get Off the Schneid?

Wannamakeabettors,

We have a fantastic day of college football ahead of us and a great card of Sunday games in the NFL this week at  Wannamakeabet.com. The season is hitting stride and as always this time of year, there are still many leagues that are still accepting new members.  If you’re not in a league yet or thinking about starting one this football season, it’s not too late!   Unlike traditional fantasy football, you can start a sports betting league at any point of the season.

NFL Week 3 Podcast Picks

Click here to listen to this week’s Podcast on your favorite listening platform.  Jack and Cello took one on the chin last week as they went 1-4 to bring the season total to 4/10 (40%).  There’s an old mantra at the site that goes back 23 years… Thank God It’s Not Real Money and that was certainly true last week.  That said, you have to get back on the horse and hopefully good money management will help you sustain bad weeks like the one we had last week.  Here’s who we have our eye on this week and the current lines from WANNA for each game.

• Detroit Lions  -3 over Atlanta Falcons
  • An unfortunate loss for the Lions last week at home as Seattle came in and stole one but there’s nice value on them this week laying a small number to an Atlanta team that appears to be over valued based on being 2-0 at home and Desmond Ridder outperforming versus “Expected”.  We see Ridder and the Falcons regressing to the mean this week, leveling off the hot start.
• Green Bay Packers – 1 over New Orleans Saints
  • Packers at home is always a nice proposition.  And despite the narrow loss to the Falcons last week, these Packers look like they have moved on nicely with the departure of Aaron.   It’s a limited data set but based on this year’s numbers they are currently ranked 6th in the league.  They get the W this week laying the short number.
• Seattle -5.5 over Carolina Panthers
  • Apparently the jury is still out on Seattle and Vegas is not convinced last week’s bounce back win in Detroit was enough to have them lay more than this number to Carolina, whose offense is among the leagues worst through two weeks and their defense is barely keeping their heads above water. Bryce Young will sit this one out… but are we to believe that 35 year old Andy Dalton is going to come in and win a game given he has nobody to throw to besides Thielen?   And highly unlikely that he can beat anyone with the old legs.
• Philadelphia Eagles – 5 over Tampa Bay Bucs
  • Time for Baker to come back down to earth.  We thought it might happen last week but Justin Fields helped gift wrap another win for the opponent with his horrible play.  If Philly can beat the Pats on the road by 5 they sure as hell can wear down this offense,  which has over-performed the first two weeks in part because Detroit struggled in the opener and the Bears are just plain bad.  This is a big step up in class on both sides of the ball for Tampa and we don’t think they’re up to the task.
• Cincinnati Bengals – 1.5 over LA Rams
  • As we discussed on the Pod, we don’t want to overthink this one.  The Bengals aren’t going to start 0-3.  Perfect value opportunity for one team that has over-performed (Rams) and one that has under performed (Cincy). Cincy shows up in front of the national audience as Joe’s calf gets better and better with each passing week.  Not to mention the added incentive of payback from the Super Bowl is still fresh in most of these player’s minds.

Good luck with your selections!

Jack and Josh

Wannamakeabet.com