NBA Finals Game 1 Preview: Nuggets vs. Heat, Rest vs. Rust
by Gabriel Rauch for Wannamakeabet.com
8:30 EST on ABC
Sports media’s favorite debate is back! Whenever two teams have a disparity in the number of days off before a playoff series, is it better to have more time to heal or to have the momentum?
Surely this time the debate will be resolved for good!
This debate has arisen due to the Denver Nuggets sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers and having an astounding nine days rest before the finals. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat will only be playing on two days rest after almost blowing a 3-0 lead to the Celtics.
Will the Nuggets come out sharp or sluggish? Will the Heat be motivated or beaten down?
Since 2005, teams coming off over a week’s rest (8+ days) in the NBA playoffs are 18-9 ATS. From this stat, history tells us the Nuggets are fine. Yet the Heat have continued to defy history:
- One of two 8 seats to ever make the finals ✅
- Only play-in team to make the finals ✅
- One of three teams to ever win every series as an underdog ✅
In fact, the 2023 Heat almost play better as an underdog, with their backs against the wall, as we saw in the Celtics series. We can’t let history dictate this one. So how big of an underdog are the Heat? Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is the biggest favorite to win finals MVP since 2000, and the Heat are a massive underdog in this series. On CBS, there isn’t a single analyst that has Miami winning the series. The Heat also have not forgotten the dirty play from Jokic a year ago in the regular season (that almost caused a fight between the two teams after the game), and that will without a doubt add to their motivation.
The Heat are certainly doubted and it is not without good reason. The Nuggets are an absolutely stacked team with size, depth, shooting, offense, and the two-time MVP. Perhaps the analysts will even be right in the long run. However, we are only focusing on Game 1, where the Heat have all the momentum and motivation. Jimmy Butler knows he’ll have to give a herculean effort to win this series. And he will do that in Game 1.
Pick: Heat + 8.5
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