MLB Picks 5/28 – Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

MLB Picks 5/28 – Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

by Thomas Quaynor – MLB analyst for Wannamakeabet.com

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-27) take on the Atlanta Braves (31-21) in the finale of a 4-game series tonight on ESPN. Philadelphia won 2 of the first 3 games including a 2-1 decision yesterday where Zack Wheeler struck out 12 batters across 8 innings in picking up the win. Tonight’s starters are Dylan Covery (0-0, 3.00 ERA) for Philadelphia and strikeout king Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA) for Atlanta. 

GAME ODDS

Moneyline : Philadelphia + 225, Atlanta – 275

Run Line: Philadelphia + 1.5 (+112), Atlanta -1.5 (-134)

Run Total: over 8.5 (-118)  under 8.5 (-104)

GAME STORYLINES

Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies captured the final wild card spot with an 87-75 record and made a surprising run to the World Series where they fell to the Houston Astros in 6 games. It ended a 10-year postseason drought and was their first World Series appearance since 2009. Philadelphia followed that up by signing free agent shortstop Trea Turner to a 11-year, $300 million dollar contract in December. Turner is 29-years-old so the deal will last into his 40’s. Philadelphia has been unable to capitalize on the success of last season and the signing of Turner as they come into tonight’s game at just 25-27. 

Seven-time All-star and two-time MVP Bryce Harper played through a partially torn UCL in his throwing arm for the majority of the 2022 season, he underwent Tommy John surgery in November and miraculously returned in just under six months. The surgery usually has a recovery timeline of about a year. Harper’s 5-year stint with Philadelphia has been marred by injury as he’s had two seasons where he’s played fewer than 100 games. Harper hit 35 homers in each of the two seasons (2019 and 2021) where he played a full season and was named NL MVP in 2021. Harper returned to the team on May 2 and is hitting .321 with 3 homers and 8 RBI across 22 games.

Phillies power hitter Kyle Schwarber has literally been “all or nothing” at the plate this year as he’s batting just .166 (30 hits in 181 at bats) but has 12 homers and 25 RBI. Schwarber’s 46 homers and 94 RBI last season were both career-highs in his first year with the team. He also swatted 6 homers for the Phillies in their run to the Word Series.

The Atlanta Braves have won 5 consecutive NL East division titles and are well on their way to a sixth consecutive crown as they currently sit four games ahead of the second place New York Mets. Atlanta’s deep hitting lineup and strong pitching rotation is reminiscent of the 1990’s/early 2000’s Braves teams who won 14 consecutive NL East crowns from 1991 through 2005. 

25-year-old superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is having a spectacular season hitting .322 with 11 homers, 27 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Acuna is back to playing at an elite level after a July 2021 torn ACL limited his production last season. First baseman Matt Olson’s 14 homers and 37 RBI lead the team, he’s on pace to surpass the 30 home runs for a third straight year. Catcher Sean Murphy is hitting .280 with 11 homers and 37 RBI in his first season in Atlanta. Olson and Murphy were teammates for three winning seasons in Oakland. Not surprisingly, Oakland has been terrible since both of them left.

24-year-old star pitcher Spencer Strider gets the start tonight for Atlanta tonight. Strider finished second to teammate Michael Harris II for NL Rookie of the Year last season after going 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 202 strikeouts. Strider has continued his excellent play in year two as he leads MLB with 97 strikeouts and has compiled a 4-2 record with a 2.97 ERA in 10 starts. 

THE PICK

I don’t think Atlanta drops a series to an inferior team at home with their strikeout ace on the mound, take Atlanta on the moneyline!