March Madness National Championship Preview: They Can’t Keep Getting Away With This

March Madness National Championship Preview: They Can’t Keep Getting Away With This

UConn (4) vs SDSU (5)

The 2023 UConn Huskies have been one of the most dominant teams in college basketball history. They have won every game by double digits and only performed poorly on just one half of basketball the entire tournament, which was the first half against Iona in the first round! However, the most impressive stat by far is that they have covered the spread in every March Madness game and are looking to join history alongside: 2006 Florida, 2009 UNC, 2014 UConn, 2015 Duke, 2016 and 2018 Villanova. UConn has covered every spread, despite the vast majority of public bets being on them, which happens even more rarely in sports. UConn are unequivocally Goliath here, despite only being a 4 seed. So how can David (SDSU) even have a shot at slaying them?

Pulling Back The Curtain

I’ve gotten my ass kicked in March Madness this year. The sharp bets aren’t hitting, I’ve missed on the easy wins, and my hometown team SDSU has made it all the way to the finals, complicating things even more. I have two major pieces of advice to gamblers:

• Go with the uncomfortable pick
• Do not bet on a team you are emotionally invested in 

Yet, both of those do not apply here. SDSU happens to be both the pick that makes me uncomfortable (the gut pick) and my team. I typically go against the public, which has worked well in the past, for both football and college basketball, yet has been terrible this tournament. Anyway, this is too inside baseball, the point is my strategy is not working and having an emotional horse in the race is not helping my decision on who to pick for this game. 

Anyone who has lived in a championship dry sports town like San Diego knows that hope is a dangerous thing. We’re so used to being disappointed in our teams, that hope seems like a curse more than a gift. I still can’t believe SDSU is here in the finals, the first time a San Diego sports team has made a championship final since the Padres and Chargers in the 90s. *disclaimer* I’m talking SDSU football and basketball, Chargers and Padres. The Aztecs have also been a true Cinderella story, in all the most cliched ways possible. 

• Won come from behind games  ✅ 
• Buzzer beater winner ✅ 
• Coach who was on another team that almost won a championship ✅
• Making amends for players who had their moment robbed (The Pandemic) ✅
• No one picking them to go this far ✅

If this was a movie, they would beat UConn. But this isn’t a movie, so what happens next? 

Analysis

If there is any chance of beating UConn, it has to be on the defensive end. UConn has gone up against scorching hot offensive teams (Gonzaga and Miami) and clamped them down. Thankfully SDSU is a much better defensive team than anyone UConn has faced (since Saint Mary’s), so they should have a shot on that end. The Aztecs will do by far the best guarding Sanogo as they are the most physical team UConn has faced thus far. SDSU’s leading scorer Matt Bradley is also finally getting hot at the right time, so SDSU should not have as much trouble generating offense. 

The biggest downside for SDSU is that UConn will not let them beat them the way SDSU has won other games this tournament. The Aztecs have been down late in the games but have won thanks to great defense down the stretch and clutch shot making. UConn likely won’t allow that. When the Huskies have the lead, they do not let it go easily. According to ESPN, Uconn has trailed for only 85 seconds in the tournament, against aforementioned good offensive opponents. SDSU is not the best shooting team, meaning if they are down against UConn, it is very unlikely they will come back. So how straightforward is this?

The Line

Uconn opened as 6 point favorites over SDSU and that line has already moved to 7.5 by gametime. This is the biggest UConn has been favored over anyone since Iona in the first round, and the public clearly loves them. Everything points to UConn covering and leaving the city of San Diego in the dust, but I’m going in another direction. It all seems too easy, and we have seen in the tournament that experience does matter. 

Maybe it’s an irrational hope, or maybe it’s that I cannot change my betting strategy no matter what, but I am taking SDSU to cover. They are the best defensive team UConn has played all tournament and that’s all the hope I need. I’m giving a San Diego team a shot because they’ve earned it. 

The Pick: SDSU +7.5