We’re coming down the stretch on the 2022 season at Wannamakeabet.com which means there are four games left for any team that hasn’t played yet this week (18 weeks in the season, 17 games). The commish went 2-3 last week with a regrettable flip/flip on the Dolphins over chargers that was the difference between winning and losing. The season record now stands at 35/61 (57.37%). For a full preview of every single game on the card, make sure you listen to our podcast. Here’s who we like this week, all lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this posting.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 over Baltimore
Must win game for the Brownies this week as they try to stay relevant in the wildcard race. The absence of the Lamar Jackson and a home field advantage is just what the doctor ordered this week as the Ravens and their struggling offense come to Cleveland. Deshaun Watson gets better every week and this is his first home game. The loss to Cincy last week was both humbling and motivating last week. The recipe for stopping Baltimore is simple, stop the run. And since their best running back(Lamar) is out it should all be about stopping this one dimensional offense and not making any mistakes on offense. Browns win easy.
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 over Carolina
Good matchup for the Steelers today in a buy low, sell high scenario for both teams here. Carolina’s stock is high after beating Seattle on the road and the Steeler’s dropped after losing their quarterback and the game to the Ravens last week. But when I look closely at recent DVOA trends, Carolina’s offense is ranked 30th in the league over the past 4 games. Advantage Steelers. And even though their defense has stepped it up big time against the pass (ranked 2nd over the same period) we all know the Steeler’s won’t be coming in with a game plan trying to beat them in the passing attack. This is an absolute slug fest on the ground today but advantage goes to Tomlin over Wilks when the chips are down and the Steeler’s D in the 4th quarter when you absolutely have to get a stop.
KC Chiefs -14 over Houston Texans
The Texans Super Bowl was last week when they played Dallas. And they failed to get what could have been a win that could propel them through the last month of the season. Instead, they gave up a 98 yard drive to lose the game. The thought here is that they emotionless Lovie Smith will fail to inspire solid play for a second week in a row against another top five team that is rolling into Texas today. The Chiefs had a scare of their own last week, after opening up a huge lead against Denver, they couldn’t hold them at bay. Either way, although Houston’s defense has showed promise of late ( ranked 10th over the past six week) their offense is dead last. And with Damien Pierce now on IR and Cooks and Collins both out… the public and the teasers are coming for the Chiefs today but I don’t even think the contrarians can’t stop this one.
LA Chargers -3 over Tennessee Titans
The commish made a critical error last week in abandoning the Chargers over Miami that I picked on the podcast and ended up taking Miami instead. These Chargers are hot now that they’re healthy. And the Titans are in a funk. Both teams are going in opposite directions. The Titans are the AFC’s version of the Vikings. Nobody can quite understand how they have so many wins and none of them are quality. This is a great matchup for the surging and healthy Chargers. Tennessee can really stop the run but the Chargers aren’t a classic running team as Ekeler typically gets out into space. But more importantly, the Titans can’t stop the pass and Herbert, Allen, Williams, and Everett are coming for them today.
LA Rams +6.5 over GB Packers
On Monday night, Aaron Rodgers will continue his path to going out of the league on the bottom, not the top. The Packer defense is ranked 30th over the past month and they can’t seem to stop anyone or anything. Meanwhile, the Rams have a bit of energy with Baker Mayfield and a coach in Sean McVey who still stays very positive and motivated. And those two seemed to be hitting it off based on last week’s inspiring comeback win against the Raiders. Betting against the Packers at home is not something I usually do but the attitudes on the sidelines of these two teams seems to be entirely different. The Rams want to remind people of why they WON the Super Bowl last year. And the Packers are waiting for Aaron Rodgers to go quietly into the night.
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