NFL Week 14 Picks – AFC North Wars

NFL Week 14 Picks – AFC North Wars

by Jack Simon for Wannamakeabet.com

We have arrived at Week 14 in the NFL and the commish is coming off another solid week during week 13 going 3-2.  That brings the season win total in this column to 33/56 (58.92%).   Six teams have bye weeks this week so it’s a shorter card than normal but here’s who we have our eye on today to get the job done against the spread.  All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this posting.   And don’t forget to listen to our Podcast where hosts Jack and Cello preview every single game on the card each week.

Detroit Lions -2 over Minnesota Vikings

Payback’s a bitch.  The smoke and mirror show that are the Minnesota Vikings are about to run into a buzz saw today in this battle of the NFC north.  This game screams trap as the line is begging you to take the Vikings but given both of these team’s recent forms, there’s only one choice here.   The Lions are hot as a pistol and the Vikes just continue to get by on good looks.  Detroit’s offense is top 10 over the last month and this will not be a repeat of the Jet game last week when the Jets lit up the Vikes but couldn’t score.  It’s time for Dan Campbell to get the monkey off his back and reverse the trend (1-8 over the past five years) and finally beat the Vikings in a big game.

Clevveland Browns + 5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals

DeShaun Watson’s inauguration back into the league and onto the Browns last week against Houston was not good.  And today should prove to be rough as well as he steps into Clevelands arch intrastate rival Cincy.  But the Browns match up very well against he Bengals.  This is mainly because Cincy struggles against the run.  So when Chubb, Hunt, Schwartz and even DeShaun take it to them on the ground today, they should get their yards.  On the flip side, Cleveland’s defense has quietly improved over the past month and are no longer bottom 10 in the league.  And Cincy’s D is not top half either.  Fair market value for this line if Jacoby was still the QB would be 3.5 or 4 and in some places this line could get to six.   This game is so important for Cleveland today and given the recent history (8-1 since 2017) I’m on my Brownies today to keep this close or even get the W.

Tennessee Titans -4.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans played one of their worst games of the season last week in Philly so this week in practice must have been especially hard as Vrabel likely brow beat every player on the team including the back up kicker.   Meanwhile, the Jags got blown out by Detroit and Trevor Lawrence suffered a sick foot bend which apparently looked worse than it actually is.  But that doesn’t change the fact that the Jags are a bottom five team in the league and the Titans come home for this one with a chance to put them out of their misery and take command of the AFC South.   The Jags have a decent defense against the run but are dead last in the league against the pass.  And even though stud Treylon Burks is out, Tanny should be able to get the ball to Woods, Westbrook-Ikhine, and Hooper.  The Jags are 1-8 against Tenny over the last five years and many of those losses are really ugly.   That continues today.

San Francisco 49ers over Tampa Bay Bucs

Tom and Tampa are traveling across the country to play the best defense in the league and a rookie QB in Brock Purdy.   And because the Saints blew the game on Sunday and SF lost their starting QB, there’s probably 3 points of value here today.  Tampa’s offense is horrible.  Tom continues to dump it off to fat Lenny and overthrow his stars and that’s when he’s playing pedestrian defenses.  Today, he’ll face the league’s best which should magnify all their shortcomings.  Brock just has to follow a simple script that Shanny provides and get the ball to his playmakers.  This Tampa defense is not what it used to be earlier this season, in fact, over the past month, they are ranked 14th in the league.  I see this game playing out in a similar way to last week against the Saints with one major difference, once the 49ers get a two TD lead, they’re going to step on the GOAT’s throat.

Miami Dolphins – 3 over LA Chargers

Miami had a slice of humble pie last week in San Francisco as we accurately predicted they would struggle, lose, and not cover.  But this week they stayed on the west coast to contemplate all their weaknesses and get ready for this game against a much weaker opponent.   There’s something wrong with the Chargers, and it likely starts with head coach Brandon Staley.   The defensive minded coach doesn’t have a good defense (ranked 22nd) and their offense has been putrid.  Meanwhile, Miami’s offense is lethal and Jalen Waddle appears to be healthy.   So he, Tua and Tyreek are looking to come into this nationally televised game and light people up.  On the flip side Derwin James, arguably LAC’s best defender is likely going to miss tonight’s game.   I picked the Chargers on the podcast this week but the more I look at this and with the injury status of a few key players becoming more clear as we get toward kickoff, I’m going with Miami in this one instead of continuing to believe the Chargers can turn things around.