Army Navy Preview: Spin The Wheel…

Army Navy Preview: Spin The Wheel…

by Gabriel Rauch for wannamakeabet.com

Army Vs Navy (-2.5) O/U (32)

You know when you’re at the roulette table at the casino and it keeps landing on black? Well eventually it has to land on red…right? What if it landed on black SIXTEEN times in a row, would you bet on red then? 

This is the conundrum America finds itself in every year during this clash of the Army and Navy academies; a contest where the under has hit an astounding sixteen times in a row. These teams play an old fashioned, throwback style of football that causes lower scores, and as much as the college football world has evolved around them, Army Navy stays old school. A perfect irony, considering our military off the field is the most advanced in the world. But no more of that here, this is football. 

So will black (the under) hit again, or will red (the over) finally get its chance to shine and claw out of the rubble?

The total is currently 32, which is the lowest in thirty years! This has already gone down from a starting total of 34 in most sports books, which likely means a lot of bets have been on the under and Vegas wants to keep evening things out. This year looks no different from the last two decades, as historically, the service academy games end up being in a league of their own when it comes to scoring. Unders in service academy games (Army, Navy, Air Force) are a shocking 43-9-1 since 2005 and were pretty lopsided before then as well. Is this because the teams have terrible offenses? Not necessarily. 

Army and Navy actually both have solid offenses, with Army averaging almost 30 a game, and Navy with a more modest 22.4. So why is the total so low? The math isn’t adding up here. In this game, it doesn’t matter how good the offenses are, because besides Air Force, no other teams play like them. Army may have the stronger attack with dual threat (mostly running) QB Tyhier Tyler and a flurry of strong runners, while Navy having a stout defense led by the mirror image of every Navy linebacker you remember watching, John Marshall. But it never ends up mattering. 

These teams will each run into a wall for 60 minutes until one of them gets a break their way, or one key player makes a brilliant gametime decision. Or whichever team is lucky enough to complete the three passes required to win. SEC teams might score 40 a game in 2022, but this is not that. This is still Army Navy, and until I have a reason not to, I will bet on black.

The Pick: Under 32 

Praying I do not mush this