We’re back for our Week 12 NFL picks after a fun filled Thanksgiving week. Last week, we stayed hot, going 4-1. That brings the season record to 28/46 (60.87%). This week did not start off well for the commish as Dallas missed a late field goal to ice the cover and then let the Giants come down the field and get the back door. So we have some work to do today to save the week but there will only be four picks. All lines are from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this posting.
Cleveland Browns + 3.5 over Tampa
When something seems too easy it usually is. Tampa comes into this one with the worst rushing DVOA of any team in the league and the Browns have the worst against the run, so something has to give here. And yet there’s an overwhelming feeling among bettors that Tampa wins this game easy. Having two weeks to look at film of Rachaad White and knowing Lenny is out will help the Browns prep for the the Jacoby Brissett goodbye today. The Bucs are also poor on the road only putting up 15 PPG. Chubb has not had his usual production the past two weeks and if teams like Carolina can run on on Tampa, the Browns should be able to find a way. I’m thinking the Browns only have to score two touchdowns to cover today and the extra hook on this 3 is enough to push me over the edge. Cleveland gets the cover and maybe even the win but this one’s close.
Seattle – 4 over Las Vegas
Let’s not complicate things. Seattle is rested after the tough loss to the Bucs in London two weeks ago but they come in ranked 9th in the NFL. And the Raiders are a dysfunctional team coming off a needed emotional win over Denver last week. But that’s not enough to spark a turnaround. Geno will continue his hot season and light up this defense, which is currently ranked dead last in the NFL. With Geno, Walker, Metcalf, Lockett, Goodwin, Fant all healthy… look the F out.
LA Chargers -2.5 over Arizona
Short week for Arizona after getting blown out by the 49ers in Mexico but now they have another huge hill to climb. The Cards are in a free fall and the end is not near as they are now ranked 31st overall in the league according to DVOA. The Chargers had to play two of the top teams in the league the past two weeks (Chiefs / 49ers) and really did hold their own in those games but couldn’t get the win. Today is a big step down in competition for them and with Keenan Allen healthy and a much improved defense, it’s a perfect opportunity to show the league they are better than their record.
Pittsburgh +2.5 over Indianapolis
The Steelers play with a ton of pride in situations like this. And this is a big coaching advantage to the Steelers as well. Big bad credible Mike versus aw sure, I’ll take the job Jeff. The Steeles are a middle of the pack team this year who appear to be improving every week with the young QB Pickett. The problem is that there is a massive disparity between the D-line and the secondary, who regularly get torched by good passing offenses (like Cincinnati last week). And to the Colts credit, they have been improving of late. But they are still dead last in offensive production. TJ is coming for Matty on Monday night and the Steelers make good on Bill Cowher’s sentiment that Jeff Saturday was a bad choice… “whatever the outcome”.
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