NFL Week 6 Picks – Featuring Bills / Chiefs

We have arrived at our NFL Week 6 Picks and the commish is coming off a 4-1 week and looking to stay hot.   The season record now stands at 10/19 (52.63%) which is officially above sea level in sports betting.  Let’s try and stay hot this week with these predictions.  All lines are ATS from Wannamakeabet.com at the time of this post.

Cincinnati -2.5 over New Orleans

The top 10 defense of the Saints got gashed by the high powered offense of the Seahawks last week and the commish felt lucky to get out of there with a win and cover.  But this week, they face a much more balanced team in Cincy.  The Bengals defense ranks 8th overall and the Saint receiving core is entirely banged up.  Michael Thomas still out, Olave coming off concussion, Landry and Harty both out.  This means it’s all on Kamara and Taysum Hill.  That’s fine against Seattle but not Cincy.  And the Saint secondary is also banged.  Saints secondary: CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen, out), Paulson Adebo (knee, questionable), S Marcus Maye (rib, questionable).  Bengal Tee Higgins practiced Friday but even if he’s not at full strength you have Boyd backing him up.  So a Cincy offense that’s near full strength against a banged up secondary and that Zone defense should keep Kamara relatively contained although he’ll get his yards.  Cincy gets the win and cover.

Jacksonville Jags + 2 over Colts

There’s a real problem with the Colt offense.  It’s ranked 32nd and the worst in the league.  Now Jonathan Taylor was ruled out on Saturday morning and backup Hines is in concussion protocol and there’s horrible backup options (Jackson/Lindsey) for coach Reich.  The Jags lost some cred last week in the loss to Houston, but it’s more credit to Houston than a bad look for them.  Jags bounce back this week and show everyone why they started off so hot.

Seattle +2.5 over Arizona

Who knew Geno Smith would be a major upgrade from Russell Wilson as he is now ranked the league’s best QB.  And Seattle now has the best offense in the NFL and they continue to just light teams up, even good defenses like the Saints as we saw last week.   The Arizona offense is painful to watch.  There doesn’t ever appear to be a good game plan and then in the second half they just throw it all out the window and Kyler starts improvising and engineering a comeback.  But this week it will be too late as the Hawks finally return home after two weeks on the road and deliver a win for the electric crowd in Seattle.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chiefs

There’s a few ways for Buffalo to get home field advantage in the playoffs this year and this game might be the most important item on the list.  The Chiefs continue to turn in weak home performances like last week against the Raiders and struggle to get off to a good start and then hold on for dear life to get the win.  But what I think this game will ultimately highlight are two things, 1) their lack of a deep threat with Tyreek gone and 2) their weak secondary defense.   Both of these offenses can score easily but the Bills defense is much better (ranked 2nd and Chiefs ranked 15th) and that will be the difference this afternoon in arrowhead, especially at the end of the game.  The Chiefs just can’t stop the deep balls and Diggs is coming this afternoon to deliver the ultimate reminder.

LA Rams – 10 over Carolina

This is the ultimate buy low spot on the Rams as they have not looked good the last two weeks getting their asses handed to them by two of the NFCs hottest teams in the 9ers and Cowboys.  But now they come home to play the lowly Carolina panthers who are missing the league’s worst quarterback in Baker Mayfield and will face his backup PJ Walker (which might actually be an upgrade)  But the Panther secondary is banged up  as CB Jaycee Horn (ribs, questionable), C.J. Henderson (knee, questionable), Donte Jackson (ankle, questionable), CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver (thigh, out).  This means that both Cooper Kupp and Higbee will be looking at high end outcomes on their numbers and the Rams get right today and remind people that they’re still a decent team.

And that concludes our NFL Week 6 picks for this week.  Good luck with your selections, you’ll need it to cover!

Commish