Five of seven Week 5 college football matchups involving Big Ten teams see double digits on the board, including Michigan State laying two touchdowns to Indiana. The game is one of four Big Ten conference clashes with long lines. No. 8 Wisconsin is a 24-point favorite hosting Northwestern, No. 20 Michigan — in desperate need of a confidence-boosting win — is laying 27.5 points to Rutgers at home, while No. 5 Ohio State is chopping a lot of wood laying 17.5 to Nebraska at Memorial Stadium. Now let’s get into the 2019 Big 10 college football preview for Week #5
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Recent trends suggest the Buckeyes may have the toughest test of all the Week 5 heavy chalk. Since the start of last season, double-digit road favorites in Big Ten matchups are 12-2 SU and 4-10 ATS, coming up 3.7 points short of a -17.5 average line.
Here are updated betting odds and some key information bettors need to know heading into this weekend’s games.
No. 12 Penn State (-6.5, 60) at Maryland
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT (FS1) Opening line: Nittany Lions -7.5 Opening total: 58.5
Analysis: Maryland is coming off a bye with ambitions to fix an offense that went into neutral after putting up 142 points in its first two games. The Terps lost 20-17 to Temple as 4.5-point chalk in Week 3, twice coming up short of the end zone from close range on a pair of late possessions. The Owls dominated on the defensive front. Penn State’s front seven is even more talented.
The Nittany Lions have won 28 of their last 29 Big Ten clashes against unranked rivals, covering the spread in two-thirds (18-9-2 ATS). The numbers improve to 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS when kicking off with a single-digit spread.
Northwestern at No. 8 Wisconsin (-24, 45)
Kickoff: noon ET / 11 a.m. CT (ABC) Opening line: Badgers -23 Opening total: 45
Analysis: No program has more outright upsets as underdogs (34) nationally than Northwestern since head coach Pat Fitzgerald took control in 2006. No miracles, however, have come with a line longer than 19.5 points. Bad news for those seeking a bankroll-stuffing long shot.
In eight conference matchups laying more than 20 points on the board, Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst has never seen his defense surrender more than 20 points, yielding a 12.5 average. The Wildcats D should be the difference-maker in spread betting considering Wisconsin’s point-stopping consistency.
Middle Tennessee at No. 14 Iowa (-24, 53)
Kickoff: noon ET / 11 a.m. CT (ESPN2) Opening line: Hawkeyes -23.5 Opening total: 49.5
Analysis: Ever since a shocking 23-21 defeat to North Dakota State as 14.5-point favorites in Week 3 of the 2016 season, the Hawkeyes have not allowed more than two touchdowns in a game to non-Power 5 opponents at Kinnick Stadium. Kicking off a -17.3 average favorite, Iowa is undefeated and 4-1 ATS, winning by 22.4 points per game.
Conference USA, meanwhile, has covered six in a row against B1G foes when catching more than two touchdowns on the oddsboard. This includes a Middle Tennessee spread winner in a 40-21 defeat as a 33-point underdog at Michigan in the 2018 season opener.
Rutgers at No. 20 Michigan (-27.5, 48)
Kickoff: noon ET / 11 a.m. CT (BTN) Opening line: Wolverines -29 Opening total: 48
Analysis: Following a blowout loss at Wisconsin, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh may finally be on the hot seat. BetOnline is dangling EVEN odds the alumnus fails to lead the program for Week 1 of the 2020 CFB season.
Expect confidence in the coach to increase following a Rutgers visit to Michigan Stadium. Harbaugh, showing little mercy, has outscored the Scarlet Knights 204-37 in four prior meetings.
Indiana at No. 25 Michigan State (-14, 44)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. CT (BTN) Opening line: Spartans -14 Opening total: 46
Analysis: Indiana head coach Tom Allen is undecided at quarterback between redshirt freshman Michael Penix and redshirt junior Peyton Ramsey for the trip to East Lansing. The game-time decision may not matter much against a Michigan State defense that has not surrendered more than 17 points in any of four games this season.
The total, which has dropped to 44 as of publication, may be in motion by the fact the UNDER is 24-9 (72.7 percent) in the last 33 Big Ten clashes played at Spartan Stadium.
Minnesota (-1, 56.5) at Purdue
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN2) Opening line: Boilermakers -1 Opening total: 53.5
Analysis: This is Minnesota’s first Big Ten road test since stunning Wisconsin 37-15 as a 10-point underdog in Week 13 last season. Prior to that, the program had lost 10 in a row away. If the Gophers hope to continue the streak, it will have to keep up. Purdue has scored 31 points or more in all but one of Minnesota’s last 10 trips to Ross-Ade Stadium.
No. 5 Ohio State (-17.5, 67) at Nebraska
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. CT (ABC) Opening line: Buckeyes -15 Opening total: 63.5
Analysis: Oddsmakers at Golden Nugget pegged Ohio State a 10-point favorite in Games of Year Lines in May.
Nebraska, a popular long shot to win the Big Ten West, has yet to show much bite against tougher opponents in head coach Scott Frost’s second year. In their only two games against Power 5 foes, the Cornhuskers fell 34-31 to Colorado as 4-point chalk, while narrowly topping Illinois 42-38 laying double digits last week. Neither program comes close to matching the talent tree of the visiting Buckeyes. This clash will be a true litmus test to determine if Nebraska is a B1G contender or pretender.