The leader and headline grabber of this category is always the ‘coin toss’. My dad always used to say to me, “Did you know you can bet on the coin toss”? Or if you like Gatorade, MVP speeches and crazed fans (well, who doesn’t love a naked fan?), then you’re in for a real treat this year.
Here are some of the popular bets we’re seeing and a quick and dirty analysis and prediction for each one of them.
Coin Toss
- Heads -105
- Tails -105
Analysis: For the first 52 Super Bowls the flip has landed on tails 27 times and heads 25 times. How’s that for a 50/50 chance. Pretty darn close. The longest streak for either was a five-year run on heads from 2009 to 2013 and a four-year run on tails from 1998-2001 and 2002-2006. Heads was the right pick at Super Bowl 52 a year ago – following three straight ‘tails’ outcomes in the three previous Super Bowls.
Super Bowl LIII Props Pick: It’s a toss up!
Will a Non-QB throw a touchdown?
- Yes +350
- No -600
Analysis: While Eagles tight end Trey burton tossed a TD pass to quarterback Nick Foles in Super Bowl 52 and former Steelers wide receiver tossed a TD pass to Super Bowl 4 MVP Hines Ward, the likelihood of a non-quarterback throwing a pass, not just a TD pass, is slim to none. That said, Julian Edelman was a quarterback in College at Kansas State and I wouldn’t put it past Bellichick to pull this out of the book and give it a try this year. I like the odds.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: Yes
Will either team Not Punt during the game?
- Yes +900
- No -3500
Analysis: Seriously? There is absolute no way that either the rams or Patriots goes the entire game without punting. it’s going to cost you a boatload and the book has a huge spread here, but this pick looks as close to a lock as there is on the board.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: No
Will any QB throw for 400 or more yards in the game?
- Yes +275
- No -450
Analysis: Let’s see…Tom Brady set the all-time mark in Super Bowl 51 by passing for 466 yards in the Patriots stunning comeback win over Atlanta two years ago. Last year, Brady set another new record by torching Philadelphia for an insane 505 passing yards, although New England came up short in their quest to repeat.
Kurt Warner was the first quarterback to top the 400-yard passing mark in a Super Bowl when he threw for 41 yards in Super Bowl XXXIV (39). Even though Brady has accomplished the feat twice, I’m going to say that Super Bowl 53 does not produce a 400-yard passing day by either Jared Goff or Brady. The Rams pass defense is among the best in the league. I don’t see it happening.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: No
Will any touchdown be overturned by replay?
- Yes +155
- No -220
Analysis: Since every touchdown is reviewable and there are so many close calls and tough angles right on the goal line, I think this is pretty likely to happen. And once again you’re getting good value. I could easily see a player appearing to score but after further review, his knee or elbow or some other body part hit the ground before he gets in. It happens all the time.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: Yes
Will any player be ejected for throwing a punch or fighting?
- Yes +700
- No -1600
Analysis: Huge price to pay on the No here but it’s the right side. Even despite high emotions on both teams, everyone knows the whole world is watching and doesn’t want to be remembered as the guy who fought during the Super Bowl. This is also a discretion call, and even if a ref does see someone throw a punch, he may not throw the player out if it’s not flagrant enough.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: No
Will both teams combined score 76 or more points to break the Super Bowl record?
- Yes +325
- No -550
Analysis: I don’t see a shootout waiting to happen in Super Bowl 53. L.A. has looked rock-solid on defense in their two playoff wins over the Cowboys and Saints, although it should be noted that the Patriots have scored 37 points or more in each of their last three games dating back to their regular season finale. I think the Yes is worth playing here, given the Rams offense could easily put up 30+ points and averaged 35 during the regular season!
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: Yes
Will either kicker hit the upright or crossbar on a missed field goal or extra point attempt?
- Yes +375
- No -605
Analysis: In a season full of wild kicks, missed field goals and missed extra points, I love the Yes on this one. The extra point has been moved back as we know and it’s now a 33 yard field goal. Given the defense goes all out on every play in the Super Bowl, I could see one just squeaking by in this game and hitting the crossbar.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: Yes
Total Donald Trump Tweets on February 3
- Over 6 -120
- Under 6 -120
Analysis: Look, just this past weekend, the POTUS tweeted an insane 40 times on the government shutdown that he caused but now blames on democrats. Donald Trump loves being in the spotlight and what better way to keep the nation’s attention than by issuing a series of almost assuredly strange tweets during Super Bowl 53? But just when you think old Orange boy is predictable, he’s not, and so I don’t see a lot of tweets coming from the Oval Office this Super Bowl LII.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: Under Six Tweets
What color will the Gatorade be that is poured on the game-winning coach?
- Lime/green/yellow +225
- Orange +300
- Blue +375
- Red +400
- Clear/water +400
- Purple +1000
Analysis: A year ago, Philly’s Doug Pederson was drenched in yellow Gatorade while New England’s Bill Belichick has been spared a shower after wins in Super Bowl 36, 38 and 51. Here is a look at the last 10 Gatorade Shower Results.
Game – Color – Winning Team
- Super Bowl 43 – Yellow – Pittsburgh Steeler
- Super Bowl 44 – Orange – New Orleans Saints
- Super Bowl 45 – Orange – Green Bay Packers
- Super Bowl 46 – Purple – New York Giants
- Super Bowl 47 – None – Baltimore Ravens
- Super Bowl 48 – Orange – Seattle Seahawks
- Super Bowl 49 – Blue – New England Patriots
- Super Bowl 50 – Orange – Denver Broncos
- Super Bowl 51 – None – New England Patriots
- Super Bowl 52 – Yellow – Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: I’m going with Blue because I think that’s a strong matching color for both teams since they both have it in their uniforms.
Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?
- Teammates +175
- God +190
- Family or Family Member +500
- Owner +550
- City +1000
- Coach +1100
- Does not mention any of the above +400
Analysis: Last year, Philly’s Nick Foles said, “Unbelievable. All glory to God.” I’m going with God again. And that includes Jesus just so we’re clear. I hope there’s not a controversy over that.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: God
Will a fan run onto the field during the game?
- Yes +800
- No -2500
Analysis: I think this could happen. What better place to call attention to either yourself personally or your cause. Maybe it will even be a non paid government worker! This one is worth a shot at +800. Them odds are juicy.
Super Bowl LII Props Pick: Yes
Stay tuned to our blog this Super Bowl for more predictions, analysis, insights, and coverage of Super Bowl LII in Atlanta.
Greg Norton is a senior staff writer for Wannamakeabet.com