The news has changed on the AFC Championship Patriots-Jaguars tilt as of Thursday, with Tom Brady suffering a hand injury in practice and missing practice time. A nervous looking Brian Hoyer has been surrounded by reporters in the locker room, being hounded with questions about how he would feel about going up against Jacksonville’s pass rush and secondary. Sharps were actually laying -9 out of the gate, but began to fade the Patriots strongly once the Brady news broke driving the line down to -7.5, and the Jacksonville money-line down from roughly +345 to +275.
by Sean Zerillo – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
Whether Brady plays or not, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t, this Jaguars defense has the feel of other defenses (Giants, Jets) who have beaten New England in playoffs past by being able to create pressure with just four pass rushers and good man to man pass coverage.
The Patriots advantage here should come in the running game, where they ranked #1 in offensive line run blocking this season per Football Outsiders – although the Jaguars have been much more stout against the run since acquiring Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars’ pass rush should be able to get through, as their defense ranks amongst the best in adjusted sack rate, while the Patriots rank in the middle of the pack in pass blocking.
The Jaguars have a big advantage along the offensive line as well – they are phenomenal in pass protection while New England has an average pass rush; and New England was one of the least efficient rushing defenses in the NFL this season while the Jaguars gameplan will obviously revolve around Leonard Fournette.
Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Jaguars are also far more efficient in passing defense when facing 3+ WR sets. I expect New England to run the ball and pass out of run heavy sets (multiple running backs/tight ends) to keep the Jaguars defense off balance. But the Jaguars will be looking to pound the ball as well – and I think that this game will stay close no matter the result.
Bettors got the best of this action at Jacksonville +9.5. And I’m happy to be holding a few of those tickets. The line will tick back closer to +9 from public money once Brady’s status is cleared.
I’m riding the Jaguars again this week.
OFFICIAL PICK
Jacksonville (+9)
(ATS: 9-3; ML: 1-0; Totals 1-0) (Favorite 6-2; Underdog 4-1; Over 0-0; Under 1-1)