by Keith Rosintoski – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
New England finds themselves in a familiar position heading into Championship Weekend, favored at home. Jacksonville finds themselves coming off a big road win as touchdown underdogs and will be in that role again as they travel to Foxboro to attempt to play spoiler.
Using the table below that was made prior to the postseason, you can project out the spread of any matchup in the playoffs. Obviously, we are down to just 4 teams now, and after this weekend we’ll have our Super Bowl participants.
|
TEAM |
MY NUMBER |
HFA |
|
PATRIOTS |
-7.5 |
-4 |
|
STEELERS |
-3.5 |
-3 |
|
VIKINGS |
-3.5 |
-4 |
|
RAMS |
-2 |
-3 |
|
SAINTS |
-2 |
-3.5 |
|
CHIEFS |
-1 |
-3.5 |
|
PANTHERS |
-1 |
XX |
|
JAGUARS |
-1 |
-2.5 |
|
FALCONS |
-1 |
XX |
|
EAGLES |
0 |
-2.5 |
|
BILLS |
1.5 |
XX |
|
TITANS |
2 |
XX |
First let’s have some fun and take a look ahead at possible Super Bowl spreads. Keep in mind these are my numbers that I use to bet, so disagreeing with the market in certain spots is considered to be an edge that every bettor needs in order to come out on the winning side in the long run.
*Please note the lines used below are my own lines and not the actual lines*
New England Patriots (Pick Em) vs Minnesota Vikings (Pick Em)
Patriots 4 points better on neutral field, Minnesota Vikings are actually home for the Super Bowl should they make it, so Home Field Advantage would have to be added, and it’s possible I’m on the light side for a Super Bowl in a home stadium with it at 4 points, but that indicates this game should be Pick Em. Knowing that bookmakers will obviously not be opening this game at anything less than -2.5 New England (-120), value could be on the side of the 1st ever true home team in Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (-7.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5)
New Englad is 7.5 points better than the Philadelphia Eagles, in what would have been a much closer spread should Carson Wentz be starting. With no Home Field to consider, perhaps -7.5 may seem high, but the way New England covers (11-5-1 ATS) it could leave us with some value should this open around -6.5 which is what some of the look ahead lines suggest, especially if the line figures to head through the key number of 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Minnesota is 2.5 points better than the Jacksonville Jaguars in the ratings above, and we’ve already discussed the 4 point home field swing that may even be a tad shy of what bookmakers will use. I’d be surprised if this ended up being a matchup that my numbers would suggest playing, I think it’d open within a half point either way and stay there, and if I had to bet, I’d say it’ll be 6 not 7 if it’s not 6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles (+1)
Jacksonville is 1 point better than the Eagles on the table, and with no home field advantage that should be what the game opens as. The Eagles opened as underdogs last week, this week, and could also be doing so should they play the Jaguars in the Super Bowl. Get the dog masks ready, so that we don’t have to watch Blake Bortles and Nick Foles. I’d also consider one other thing that isn’t factored into my numbers in the table, and that is that many more Super Bowl tickets involve Philadelphia, so some hedge action could be in play for those who got the Eagles before the season, or after Wentz got hurt. But by all accounts, if Jacksonville upend the New England Patriots after defeating the Steelers, they will be favored in the big game against the Eagles.
Now let’s take a look at the Championship matchups from both conferences and see if the lines make sense enough to bet. **PLEASE NOTE THAT THE LINES USED ARE MY LINES, NOT THE ACTUAL LINES**
Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) vs New England Patriots (-10.5)
New England enters off of another cover and Jacksonville enters off one themselves, and without upgrading or downgrading either team for last week’s performance or in this case the last 2 weeks for Jacksonville, the line should be -10.5 in favor of the Pats. The table shows New England 6.5 points better than the Jags, and worth 4 points for getting to sleep in their bed’s since Christmas time, or home field advantage. This line is currently still sitting at -9 and while I originally thought it may run and bet it at -9, it doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, but if it runs it should go towards my number and not the other way, but we will see. 1.5 POINT DIFFERENCE IS A PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND AT -9.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles (+1)
The Eagles last week should have been favored according to my table by -1.5 points. Instead, they were 2.5 or 3 point dogs depending on when you bet. That is a big discrepancy in the NFL especially with the key number of 3, and they not only covered but won the game outright. The line suggested that the gap between Carson Wentz and Nick Foles was bigger or equal to the gap between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Hundley. If you find the bookmaker that believes that, let me know so I can bet there. They should only be 1 point dogs in this spot, and you are able to get +3 everywhere right now, and I’ve even seen -130 to get Minny -3 which is a horribly square play. Make no mistakes, the sharps are all over Philly this week. Last week Minny should have been -5.5 point favorites in my table, and the number eventually got there but if you got the -3.5 or -4 early in the week, you came out on the right side of the miracle cover. But keep in mind, you were on the right side in the long run regardless of whether that result ended the way it did or not. You should know whether you made a good bet as soon as you make it not after the outcome is determined.