by Sean Zerillo
Week 16 of the NFL season features a lot of VERY inflated lines for two reasons: 1) a remarkable 14-0 straight up record by favorites in Week 15; and 2) a bevy of playoff contenders going against already eliminated squads who are playing out the string.
I’m staying away from the big road favorites (Minnesota, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and the LA Rams) this week. Per the Action Network, “Teams that OPENED as favorites of 7 or more points on the road…. have gone 97-124-3 (43.9%) ATS since 2003 – John Ewing.” Though you might find the Rams or San Diego at -6.5, I’d stay away from both.
I’m also avoiding New England as a big home favorite, in a game which they need, but against a Buffalo team eager to end its own playoff drought.
This week, we’re playing one parlay featuring 4 home favorites who both need their games and are playing much inferior competition – there’s two different ways to play this parlay. And I’m also taking the points with a home underdog.
THE PICKS (2017 ATS: 5-2; ML: 1-0) (4-1 Favorites; 2-1 Underdogs)
4 Team Parlay (with two ways to play it):
Carolina (-450); Kansas City (-550); Philadelphia (-430)
With either/
1. Baltimore’s Moneyline (-910) = 1/.96 odds ($100 bet, wins $96)
or
2. Baltimore against the spread (-13.5) = 2.4:1 odds ($100 bet, wins $240)
Carolina is in a great spot here at home against Tampa Bay, who is coming off of short rest and came up short against division rival Atlanta on Monday. Their season is over, and their coach is going to be fired. Cam Newton is also a rockstar as a big home favorite – he’s 11-0 straight up and 9-1 against the number when giving a touchdown at home. This Carolina team is surging, and is going to abuse Tampa Bay’s secondary and offensive line.
Kansas City needs this game and has also been surging, and with a win they can eliminate division rival Oakland from playoff contention. Miami used up its last big effort with a win over New England two Monday nights ago, and I’m expecting this revitalized Kansas City team to win by multiple scores at home. If Kansas City wins, Oakland will be lacking motivation against a Philadelphia team on Monday who is looking to lock up home field advantage in the NFC playoffs.
How you want to play this parlay comes down to how you feel about Baltimore at home against an Indianapolis team on extra rest. Colts coach Chuck Pagano seems poised to finally be shown the door, and Baltimore has won by multiple scores over inferior opponents several times this season. Baltimore would have covered a 13.5 point spread in six of their eight wins this season, and this game has the feel of a blowout.
If you want to play the moneyline, you can get about even odds for the parlay. If you want to lay the points, you can get slightly less than two and a half to one odds.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 PM (Santa Clara, CA)
Against the Spread: Jacksonville (9-5), San Francisco (7-7)
Current Line: Jacksonville -4.5, O/U 42
Open: Jacksonville -5.5, O/U 42.5
To say that the 49ers have looked like a completely different team with Jimmy Garoppolo under center is an understatement. The team has won three straight – on the road at Chicago and Houston and last week at home against the much maligned, but still playoff contending Tennessee Titans.
The two hardest things in the NFL to find are a good coach and a good quarterback – and John Lynch and the 49ers front office appears to have found both in their first year. Garoppolo, who was traded for a second rounder, could probably be flipped for two firsts in the offseason with what he has flashed the past few weeks. He has moved the ball consistently up the field, and already looks like one of the best at his position.
Jacksonville’s defense presents a totally different test for the young QB. The scheme they run isn’t unique, but the players they have makes it unique,” Garoppolo said. “They have very talented players at every level of their defense.”
The Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring defense (14.9 points allowed per game), pass defense (168.9 yards), sacks (51) and forced fumbles (17). They easily lead the NFL in pass defense DVOA, and adjusted sack rate per football outsiders.
While San Francisco rates among one of the worst defenses in the league, they are much worse against the pass than the run. And although Leonard Fournette will return for Jacksonville after missing Week 15, he has come back before and run poorly on his often banged up ankle.
Either way, I expect both teams to be conservative and for the game to feature a lot of running and few scores. This looks like a game that the 49ers lose, but cover – in the neighborhood of 23-20, 24-20, or 20-17.
San Francisco +4.5 (-110)
Sean Zerillo is the author and creator of www.sportsvigilante.com/. You can also follow him on Twitter @Sp0rtsVigilante