by Nick Stasiak – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
If you like defense then this bowl game is definitely the one for you. Wisconsin and Miami feature two of the best defenses in the country. Wisconsin ranks 3rd in the country in points allowed per game while Miami ranks 20th. If you were to only include power five teams then Miami would rank 14th.
Both of these teams are very similar. You are going to get good defense and inconsistent offensive play. And the inconsistent offense for both is mainly because the quarterback play. Alex Hornibrook of Wisconsin and Malik Rosier of Miami both struggled at times this season. Rosier really struggled down the stretch for Miami and was a main reason they lost their final two games. Hornibrook has thrown 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this year while Rosier has thrown 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
If Wisconsin is going to win this game it’s going to be because of running back Jonathan Taylor. As a true freshman, he had a great first year. He rushed for 1,847 yards and 13 touchdowns. Miami’s run defense struggled to start the season but as the year has gone they have become much better. They still can give up a big run every once in a while as they averaged giving up 146.1 rushing yards per game. Taylor has to have a big game for Wisconsin to win.
For Miami the key is to hit on big pass plays. Wisconsin is the 2nd best rush defense in the country so they likely won’t have success running the ball. As we saw against Ohio State, Wisconsin’s defense can struggle with speed and that’s what Miami brings to the table. In their last two games, which both resulted in losses, Rosier missed a lot of deep balls to wide open receivers. He had a wide open Jeff Thomas in the ACC Championship game that would have tied the game at 7 but he underthrew it. If Miami is going to win, Rosier has to be able to hit his deep balls.
The Wisconsin -6.5 line feels like an overreaction to how Miami ended the season. They got upset in Pittsburgh to close the regular season and then got throttled 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC Championship. But this is still a good football team who ended the season on a bad note. And let’s remember here, this game is basically a home game for Miami. It’s being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami where Miami plays its home games.
In November Miami had back to back home games in primetime against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. Those two games were their best performances of the year. They won both games by a combined score of 69-18. And for both games the stadium was rocking. It felt like for the first time since the Orange Bowl was knocked down that Miami had a home again with a legit home field advantage. The atmosphere probably won’t be exactly like those two games, but expect Miami fans to show up and give them a home field advantage.
With two very good defenses and two average offenses, you’re looking at a game that will likely end around 17-14. And as previously mentioned, this is practically a home game for Miami so I think taking 6.5 points as the home team is the smart thing to do.
The Pick: Miami +6.5