by Sean Zerillo – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
Saturday features a slate of five games to open the 2017 bowl season. I have two picks from these games – one favorite against the spread and one underdog moneyline – and also have two strong leans; North Texas (+7) and their explosive offensive against Troy in the New Orleans bowl, and Marshall (+4) against Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl. I have absolutely no feel for the Autonation Care Bowl between Western Kentucky and Georgia State.
THE PICKS (2017 ATS: 4-1) (3-0 Favorites; 1-1 Underdogs)
(#25)Boise State vs. Oregon – Las Vegas Bowl – 3:30 PM, ABC
Against the Spread: Boise State (8-5), Oregon (6-6)
Current Line: Oregon -6.5, O/U 61.5
Open: Oregon -7.5, O/U 59
Oregon recently promoted former Offensive Coordinator Mario Cristobal from interim to full time head coach following Willie Taggart’s depature to Florida State. The Oregon players have rallied around Cristobal, who has made it clear that this game is a springboard for the 2018 season. “We’re gonna set the identity,” Cristobal said during his introductory press conference. “We’re gonna solidify it in the bowl game of what is to come, by being relentless, by being physical, by being explosive.”
Cristobal is highly respected within coaching circles – he was immediately hired by Nick Saban in 2013 as the associate head coach and offensive line coach at Alabama following the end of his tenure as FIU’s Head coach.
Oregon lost starting Quarterback Justin Herbert five games into this season, but he returned to win their final two games by posting 48 and 69 points, and putting himself in position as a 2018 Heisman contender.
There is a palpable difference in Oregon’s explosiveness with Herbert on the field. “Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in Herbert’s starts compared to 1-4 and 15.0 points when he was sidelined.” I don’t think that Boise can score enough to stay in this game, particularly against the best Oregon defense in recent memory.
Oregon -6.5 (-110)
Middle Tennesse vs. Arkansas State – Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – 8:00 PM, ESPN
Against the Spread: Middle Tennessee (5-7), Arkansas State (7-4)
Current Line: Arkansas State -3, O/U 62.5
Open: Arkansas State -3.5, O/U 60.5
These old Sun Belt rivals will meet again for the first time in five years, as Middle Tennessee looks to finally win a bowl game after failing to make the grade in their final test the past two seasons. And they’re extremely motivated to do so – the athletic department has subsidized tickets and provided transportation for its students and fans to cheer on their Blue Raiders.
After traveling to the Bahamas Bowl in 2015 and the Hawaii Bowl last year, the site of this year’s Bowl is less than 300 miles from campus. “Our students, our fans, we have to go to this game. We have to,” Middle Tennessee State coach Rick Stockstill said. “We’ve said now for two years, ‘It’s too hard to get to the Bahamas. It’s too hard to get to Hawaii. It’s hard.’ And I understand that. But now we’re four hours away. It’s on a perfect date. It’s on a Saturday. It’s a week and a half before Christmas. So there’s no excuses.”
This is a team that has been beset repeatedly by injuries this season. They had only four of 22 starters start every game this year. And the coach’s son, Quarterback Brent Stockstill, only returned in the last four games – leading the team to a 3-1 record to become bowl eligible. Like Oregon without Herbert, Middle Tennessee’s effectiveness on offense dwindles noticeably without Stockstill.
He was clutch in Middle Tennesse’s road upset at Syracuse as 7.5 point underdogs back in September – one of three games they played against power five competition – and I expect him to come up big and finally deliver the Blue Raiders a bowl win here.
As the spread has been bet down to +3, I’m taking the moneyline. I would take +3.5 or better if you want the points.
Middle Tennessee (+140)
Sean Zerillo is the author and creator of www.sportsvigilante.com/. You can also follow him on Twitter @Sp0rtsVigilante