by Christopher Griffen – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
The Denver Broncos (4-9, 3-9-1 ATS) travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (3-10, 6-7 ATS) this Thursday night in yet another lackluster TNF matchup. The Broncos are -2.5 road favorites in this stinker of a game, while the over/under is currently at 40.5.
The Broncos were able to break their horrific eight-game losing streak last week when they thumped the Jets to the final score of 23-0. This was Denver’s first shutout since 2005 and the defense finally returned to old form. The Broncos were able to force two turnovers and sacked Josh McCown four times. The Jets were held to just 41 passing yards and 100 total yards. Quarterback Trevor Siemian wasn’t spectacular, but didn’t turn the ball over and threw for 200 yards. Siemian also threw a touchdown to Demaryius Thomas.
The Colts are coming off a 13-7 overtime loss to the Buffalo Bills in a blizzard this past Sunday. The Colts were able to send it to an overtime period after a 3-yard- touchdown pass from Jacoby Brissett to Jack Doyle with just 1:16 left in the 4th quarter. They originally went for 2 points and converted, but the conversion was negated by a penalty. The one bright spot from the Colts’ devastating loss was Frank Gore, who rushed for 130 yards on a career-high of 36 carries.
These two opponents may not be divisional rivals, but they have met five times in just the past four seasons. The Colts have won three of those five matchups straight up and have covered the spread against the Broncos four times in that span. The only time the Colts didn’t cover was their last season’s September matchup when The Broncos were 6- point home favorites and won 34-20.
However, it should be noted that in those last five matchups, four of those games have been quaterbacked by Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. This Thursday we get a major downgrade as Trevor Siemian and Jacoby Brissett square off against each other. These two quarterbacks are the major reasons why both the Colts and Broncos are sitting in the basement of their respective divisions.
The only good thing that comes from this abysmal matchup is that you could bet this game. If it wasn’t for gambling, this game would have no meaning to most. With that being said, one should still expect a close game as five of the Colts’ last six games has been decided by six points or less.
The smart pick for this game may be the Colts if you consider the fact that the Colts are 4-2 ATS at home this season, while the Broncos are a stunning 0-6 ATS on the road in 2017. Another stat to consider is that the Broncos are 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last ten contests between the Colts. The Colts are also 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last twelve Thursday night games.
However, as stated before, this team is lead by Jacoby Brissett and not by Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, so you can throw all those stats out the window. The Colts’ only three wins this season have been against bottom-tier- quarterbacks including Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, and DeShone Kizer.
Trevor Siemian may not be much better than the quarterbacks previously mentioned, but if he is able to not turn the ball over as he did last week, the Broncos should be the smarter pick this Thursday.
The two key factors to a Broncos’ win are ball control and if the defense is able to play as well as they did against the Jets. If the Denver defense is able to play off their performance last weekend, which was arguably their best performance of the season, you should expect a close and hard fought victory for the Broncos in another low-scoring affair.
This game may be a tough one to watch so do yourself a favor and take the under. That may help the sting of another terrible TNF matchup.
The Easy Money Pick: Under 40.5
Final score prediction: Broncos: 17 Colts: 13