by Tony Fortier-Bensen – Wannamakeabet.com Staff Writer
Everyone loves a good underdog story, whether it’s fake like Average Joe’s defeating the mighty Globo Gym or real like the Giants beating the mighty 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl, and this week produces a good amount, not only in covering the spread, but winning the game, at least for two of these picks.
In my three underdogs of the week, a former always-favorite Patriot QB experiences rare times as a underdog – and wins cause he’s a former Patriot and that’s what they do. The Bears do what they normally do as underdogs all season, which is cover the spread, and Eli Manning continues the trend this season of winning revenge games, despite the odd circumstances.
San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ Houston Texans
They may only have two wins this entire season, but newcomer QB Jimmy Garoppolo is a cool one-for-one in games started for the 49ers, while Tom Savage only has one win in his five starts of the year as well. Last week, Jimmy G ran through the Bears defense nearly every drive. Although he didn’t have a single touchdown, it honestly felt like he was in the red zone almost every single drive. This week, he’ll end up with a touchdown, especially playing against a defense that allows the third-most passing TDs. But despite these stats, it really comes down to this – do you really trust Savage? Of course not.
49ers win 24-13 Bet Spread+ML – 5,000 units
Chicago Bears (+6.5) vs Bengals
Nearly this whole season, I’ve been pretty good at picking the Bears games. When the Bears aren’t the favorite, more times than not they cover the spread. And when they don’t cover the spread (two weeks ago in my ocean-spread article), even then I correctly picked them. This week, they face the Bengals. Five of the Bengals’ past eight games have been within four points, and the three games that weren’t close were against the Browns, Steelers (loss), and Jaguars (loss). If you noticed, two of the three were losses. Since I believe the Bengals will win, it’s likely that it’ll be close, and the Bears, who run and run and run and keep games moving along – thus normally close – will do it against this week.
Bengals win 23-17 Spread – 4,000 units
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
I’m a firm believer in revenge games, but I have to admit, this is a rare type of revenge game – the one against his own team. This year, revenge games have normally been won by the revenger (Brandin Cooks over Saints, Alshon Jeffery over Bears, Stephon Gilmore over Bills, Alfred Morris over Redskins last week), and the only real revenge game loss was the Falcons losing to the Pats, but I mean, we all saw that coming – at least I hope we all did. Anyway, Eli Manning is seeking revenge for his rude benching, and he’ll come out guns blazing against a Dallas Cowboys team tied for the third-most passing TDs and ranked in the worse half in pass defense, including a recent 434-yard performance to Philip Rivers. On the other end of spectrum, don’t let last week’s 38 points fool you that the Cowboys offensive woes have been figured out. The Giants, averaging 18 PPG in their last three, will keep the Cowboys in check.
Giants win 27-17 ML – 3,000 Spread – 5,000