by Nicholas Browne – Wannamakeabet Senior Staff Writer
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
This is a nightmare matchup for Seattle. Jacksonville’s defensive personnel is built to stop a team that relies on Russell Wilson to buy time and make plays with his arm and legs. This may still sound surreal, even after posting an 8-4 record that has them tied for the division lead, but the Jags are number 1 in something. Pass defense, and it’s not close. Jacksonville’s speed, pass rush, and high-level secondary play has allowed a 57.3 passer rating on 5.8 yards per attempt over the course of this season.
More good news for the Jags. Seattle’s defense and offensive line continue to be plagued by injury. 8 players were left out of practice on Friday, and two were limited (details below). In contrast, Jacksonville may get LB Telvin Smith back this week after being kept out due to a concussion in a blowout win last week vs. Indianapolis. Breakout defensive back Jalen Ramsey is also questionable. Both players are premier assets against the pass.
Regardless of the outcome of this game, and any Russell Wilson 4th quarter wizardry, feel comfortable that fading Seattle coming off a statement win at home is the right move. Expect Russell to struggle mightily in this one. This patch-work offensive line against this young and athletic defense will limit Wilson’s ability to make plays outside the pocket. The combination of an elite pass rush and a talented secondary will make downfield passing more of a chore than even Russell is accustomed to. Where the Jags defense has been susceptible this year, if at all, has been against the run. The Jags are a below average running defense (18th). However, there is no way Seattle is in a position to run the ball this Sunday. Seattle is an awful running team (21st in Yards per Rush). This trend is bound to persist, and likely worsen for Seattle due to their injuries along the offensive line and in the backfield. Jacksonville should be able to control the ball as the 6th most efficient running offense against a defense that is a shell of its’ former self.
This may be a great spot for Jacksonville, but the most important piece of any handicap is to place the action before it becomes overpriced. This line opened at Jacksonville -3. Now the number is down to 2.5. Moving down from 3 to 2.5 is the most valuable ½ point in NFL gambling. The sharps apparently recognize the value on this one. Jacksonville makes up 18% of the tickets and 24% of the total cash wagered. In simple terms, the professional bettors are making larger average bets on Jacksonville against smaller wagers on Seattle from the recreational bettors. 82% of the tickets are on Seattle, keeping this line from running the other way. This is no surprise after the country witnessed Seattle dismantle Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. Pros love fading the winner of the previous week’s primetime matchups for this exact reason. They love even more getting 1) the better team 2) at home 3) laying less than 3 points 4) in a favorable head to head match-up. Hop on the right side of this one and resist making the ‘obvious’ play.