By Tony Fortier-Bensen – Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
Navigating the ocean sized spreads
It’s always a murky feeling to see spreads reach the double digits. I like to call these ocean spreads, and Week 12 of the NFL season brings a total of four ocean spreads, just like the four oceans of Earth (sorry Southern Ocean fans). The Falcons, Eagles, Steelers and Patriots are all favored by at least 10 points, and in a league where the Giants can lose to the 49ers and beat the Chiefs (a 10.5 spread), it’s hard to believe a team can win, much less win in a convincing fashion. And don’t forget to factor in that likely garbage time touchdown.
Last year, the ocean spreads were a solid 7-2 (one of those losses was a -13.5 loss thanks to a Gostkowski missed XP). This year, it’s been a different story at a 5-5 record. My personal betting belief in large spreads is to bet who you think will win, but occasionally certain things can change matters. Here’s my breakdown of how to navigate the ocean spreads in Week 12.
Arctic Ocean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are already 0-1 against ocean spreads, outright losing to the Dolphins 20-17 at home. There’s no denying the Falcons offense in that Week 6 loss is completely different than it is now. However, Matty Ice can turn into ice at any second, freezing up right when you expect them to stay hot. The Seahawks last week weren’t the first time the Falcons let teams garbage time themselves into close games. This has backdoor cover written all over it.
My prediction – Falcons 28-24
Indian Ocean: Chicago Bears (+14) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
It’s the battle of the spread beasts in this matchup. The Eagles are an NFL-best 7-2 against the spread and the Bears are a second-best 6-3. The Bears have kept every game within 14, with the exception of Week 2 and 4 losses, when Mike Glennon was QB. However, their strong rushing attack has kept them close. The one game they faced a strong run-defense (Panthers), they put up three offensive points, winning 17-3 thanks to the defense scoring 14. That won’t happen again, and the Eagles’ NFL-best run defense stops the Bears offense from scoring much of anything.
My prediction – Eagles 34-3
Atlantic Ocean – Green Bay Packers (+14) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Like Dak Prescott, Brett Hundley looked lost without the help of a running game last week, and it won’t come back this week. The Steelers’ extended rest, a recent 40-burger, and primetime showdown are all good news for the Steelers. The best part of the spread is having .0 instead of .5. With that safety net, you should feel confident about picking the Steelers, even if there’s a garbage time touchdown.
My prediction – Steelers 27-7
Pacific Ocean: Miami Dolphins (+16.5) vs. Patriots
As stated earlier, the Dolphins have already covered an ocean spread. However, the Dolphins are not same Dolphins from back then. Deciding between a concussion Jay Cutler and a starting Matt Moore, who lost 40-0 in his last start, doesn’t change much. The Patriots have allowed 12 PPG in their past six games and scored at least 30 six times this season. The Dolphins have allowed 34 PPG in their last five. Should the Dolphins even manage to score 14 points, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins not letting Tom Brady score less than 31 points.
My prediction – Patriots 36-13