Games of the Week: By Nick Sparrow, Wannamakeabet Staff Writer
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
This game is all about riding the hot streak. New Orleans enters this game having both won and covered in each of their last seven games. Washington might not be a team as bad as their 4-5 record would suggest, but they aren’t any better against the spread. Washington is 3-6 against the spread including 2-4 in their last six games. Additionally, Washington’s smallest margin of defeat this season is by eight points last week against the Minnesota Vikings. When they lose, it really isn’t all that close of a game, which is great news for a Saints team that are entering -7.5 points favorites. The Pick. Saints -7.5
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys –
Fans will be treated to one of the best rivalries in the NFL on Sunday as the Eagles take on the Cowboys. Philadelphia has the best record in the league at 8-1, while Dallas is just 5-4 after losing 27-7 to Atlanta last week. The Eagles seem to be the easy pick here, entering as just -3.5 point favorites and a 7-2 record ATS through their first nine games of the season. Philadelphia is also coming off of a bye so they have had two weeks to prepare for this NFC East rivalry game, whereas Dallas has just had two weeks to figure out how to replace Ezekiel Elliott (shocker, they can’t).
Without Elliott, Dallas’ offense is worse than one-dimensional. Dak Prescott dropped back 30 times in Week 10 but threw for under 200 yards and no touchdowns. The most damning thing against the Cowboys though is their play calling. We have seen bad play calls throughout the season (i.e. the Green Bay game in Week 5) but last week was truly terrible. While the Falcons have a decent pass defense this season, they are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game. Dallas is a team built on running the ball and yet the only 15 times in Week 10 even though both Alfred Morris and Rod Smith were averaging over four yards per carry. You might think that is because they were down early in that game but Dallas actually led the lead until the final two minutes of the first half. Zeke is out, Dallas’ play calling is terrible, and the Eagles are only laying less than four? No brainer. The Pick. Eagles -3.5
Upset Special… NFL: Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-2.5) –
The line of this game doesn’t make much sense. The 3-6 Broncos are on a five game losing streak in which they lost by an average of over 19 points. A pick em would make sense in this game and perhaps oddsmakers are spotting Denver 2.5 points for playing at home, but Denver’s home field advantage hasn’t been nearly as dominant this season as it usually is. After starting the season 3-0 at home they have lost two straight at Mile High Stadium, including a 23-10 defeat at the hands of the New York Giants (that game is still the Giants’ only win this season.) That doesn’t even get into Denver’s quarterback situation. Trevor Siemian was benched after Week 8 when he threw three interceptions against the Kansas City Chiefs. Brock Osweiler has been the starter since but is now questionable for the game. Osweiler, Siemian, and Paxton Lynch are all possibilities to start this game but all that means is that no one is getting the lion’s share of work in practice this week. The Bengals should win this game outright and send the Broncos to their sixth straight loss. The Pick. Bengals -2.5
Best Bets: 10-point Three Team Teaser – NFL/College Combo
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) over Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals (+12.5) over Denver Broncos
Navy Midshipmen (+27.5) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Payout: -120 (bet $100 to win $83.33)
My case for the Saints and Bengals is laid out above in detail. The college football matchup between Navy and Notre Dame may seem out of left field, though. Normally I hate taking big underdogs in college football but getting almost thirty points on behalf of Navy is too good to pass up. Notre Dame seemed primed for a run at the College Football Playoff until they lost 41-8 to the Miami Hurricanes last week. Notre Dame looked completely lost last Saturday as they allowed Miami to rush for 237 yards on 49 carries, an average of almost five yards per carry. Now the Fighting Irish have to face a Navy triple-option offense that leads the nation averaging 368.8 yards per game. I don’t expect Navy to win but the combination of their strong run game combined with Notre Dame’s huge disappointment last week makes this a lock for me.
Lock of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Without Elliott I don’t see how the Cowboys will even remotely compete against a Philadelphia offense that ranks second in the NFL scoring 31.4 points per game. Even with Zeke in their lineup, Dallas only scored over 31 points twice this season (Week 7 against the San Francisco 49ers and Week 8 against the Washington Redskins) and in each of those games Zeke had over 145 yards rushing yards and two touchdowns. Week 17, with Elliott back, this could be a different game but this week Philadelphia should get it done with ease.